West Australian voters lodge disapproval in Newspoll: one term enough for Anthony Albanese

Anthony Albanese and Premier Roger Cook in January. Picture: NewsWire / Kelsey Reid

Call it buyers’ remorse, but the state that put Anthony Albanese into the Lodge has had its “come to Jesus” moment.

Only a third of West Australian voters now think the Albanese government deserves to be re-elected for a second term.

Even one in five Labor voters reckon that after only three years in office, it is already time to give someone else a go.

If this is the disposition of voters in Western Australia, which is still federal Labor’s strongest state on a two-party-preferred basis, it would be a safe bet that this number would be far worse in the eastern states.

In other words, Albanese is potentially in a diabolically bad position nationally.

The Newspoll question to West Australian voters was framed as a referendum on the Albanese government’s performance.

Half of all voters in the state believed that it did not deserve to be re-elected.

The driving factor would have to be assumed to be the collapse in living standards since 2022.

Only 65 per cent of Labor voters thought Albanese deserved to be re-elected and 44 per cent of Greens voters. This turns on its head the notion that voters are generally kinder to first term federal governments seeking a second term, even among those who put them into office.

The depth of anger reflected in these numbers suggests an uphill battle for Albanese not only to retain majority government but to form government at all.

There is an important caveat on this question. Believing a government doesn’t deserve to be returned doesn’t necessarily reflect voting intention.

In other words it doesn’t mean that people believe Peter Dutton is the man to lead them out of gloom.

And of the 20 per cent of Labor voters who don’t believe the Albanese government deserves a second term, how many would be seriously willing to switch votes to elect a Dutton government?

The unknown is just how strong this sentiment is and how likely is it to change votes.

The other unknown is how much the displeasure with the ­Albanese government and the ­federal Labor brand is bleeding into this swing against Labor at a state level.

The size of the swing against the Cook government reflected in the Newspoll looks staggering at first blush – 14 per cent.

But this is from an election ­result of almost 70 per cent in 2021.

State Labor will still deliver what is considered to be a landslide victory if the 56-44 per cent in Newspoll is repeated on election day.

This will be the story from the state branch and presumably from Labor in Canberra.

Meanwhile the state Liberals will be able to claim a large swag of seats, which can only help Dutton in terms of state-based campaign infrastructure firepower.

And Dutton will no doubt be claiming the swing against state Labor in Western Australia is all because of Albanese.

The interpretations will be overblown. Some will be partially right and some partially wrong.

It is worth noting that Albanese’s approval rating in Western Australia at the end of last year was minus 12.

But two other factors will be of concern for Albanese in the ­question of what West Australian voters think of him. The strongest voices against a return of the ­Albanese government at the next federal election was among younger voters and women.

Among 18-34 year olds, only 33 per cent – two points below the average – backed a return of government for Labor in Canberra. This is despite Albanese’s big pitch to the younger vote with the ­wiping of university loans.

The gender gap was also ­significant. Only 31 per cent of ­female voters believed Albanese deserved a second go compared to 40 per cent of make voters. A majority of women believed it was already time for a change of government.

There is little doubt as to the reason for this. Women are ­considered by pollsters to be more sensitive to cost-of-living pressures.

Whatever the spin on the state result when it comes on March 8, Albanese will not be able to hide from the fact that only one in three voters in Western Australia ­believe he deserves to be re-elected. They are poised to be asking for their money back.