By some estimates, the past three Tasmanian elections have cost taxpayers $9bn in pork barrelling.
It’s one reason the island is sinking in debt, and for the doubling of net debt to almost $11bn by 2028-29 in the recent state budget.
Independent economist Saul Eslake estimates three-quarters of the increase in net debt since 2018 is the “result of buying votes”.
This election must be where the pork stops.
Otherwise, the state’s finances – already bacon – will be charred beyond repair for many generations.
Early signs are not promising from the Liberals, who inherited a state net debt free, or close to it, in 2014, and have in recent years developed a school teacher’s predilection for red ink.
On Thursday – day one of the state election called to save his political skin – Premier Jeremy Rockliff confirmed there would be new spending initiatives to add to the $1.7bn promised at last year’s election.
Asked how the budget would be brought back on track, all he could do was parrot his line that the May budget offered a “sustainable pathway to surplus” with “manageable debt”.
It’s true that a surplus is the first step to paying down debt. However, the budget shows debt continuing to grow and does not show any surplus across any of the budget years.
Labor’s Dean Winter, lambasting the Liberals for debt levels of “$50,000 per Tasmanian household”, also committed to new spending initiatives.
However, Winter promised to match all of them with new savings measures.
“We will provide savings to offset all spending,” the ALP leader said.
The value of that promise will be in the believability of the savings measures, but it is at least a promising sign.
Debt has been building for years, and warnings by economists, business leaders and journalists have been ignored budget after big-spending budget.
Finally, it seems Tasmanian voters are becoming concerned, with the debt – described by Eslake as worse on some measures than Victoria’s – frequently featuring on talkback radio.
The bipartisan commitment to a largely state-funded $1bn AFL stadium has helped bring the debt bomb into sharp relief.
Tasmania’s business community, too, is promising to join the collective pork-watch.
“We will come out very strongly against any new spending that even resembles pork-barrelling during the campaign,” Michael Bailey, of the Tasmanian Chamber of Commerce and Industry, told The Australian.
Bailey points out the public sector has increased in size by 30 per cent during the past eight years.
The Liberals’ budget – in limbo pending the election outcome – committed to reducing the bureaucracy by 2500 jobs.
Labor – heavily influenced by the public sector unions – is attacking that policy, but will need to show how else it proposes to tackle the issue.
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