Tasmanian Premier Jeremy Rockliff takes plunge, as numb voters set to leave guilty (major) parties out in the cold
Tasmanians go a little crazy in June.
Hundreds strip naked and plunge collectively into the Antarctic-touched Derwent. Others, bathers on, step out of saunas into ice baths.
Dark Mofo started the annual masochism, but the population at large has enthusiastically embraced it.
Now the mania has spread to state parliament, with lame-duck Premier Jeremy Rockliff attempting to lead his Liberal team into what are likely to be decidedly frigid electoral waters.
The state’s Governor, Barbara Baker, is yet to agree to his request for a snap election. It would mean Tasmanians going to the polls for a second time in 16 months, and the fourth in just over seven years.
If the election does eventuate, voters – so soon after enduring federal and in some cases state upper house elections – are likely to punish those forcing them to adjudicate yet again.
All sides are blaming each other for the crisis precipitated by last week’s no-confidence motion in Rockliff.
Labor moved the motion to wedge the Greens and the independents and, at worst, force the minority Liberals to choose another, less popular leader.
Instead, the Liberals have so far stuck with Rocky, choosing to try to force a fresh election rather than stagger on to the next crisis with a fill-in.
So who should voters blame? Almost all the players are at fault. Labor played with fire and burned down the parliament, aided and abetted by the Greens and three crossbenchers.
The Liberals decided to let the house burn, rather than extinguish the blaze with a leadership change.
It’s unclear how much blame punters will apportion to each guilty party.
What is clear is the lack of enthusiasm for either major party, even before this current charade.
Rockliff (who it should be acknowledged took a literal ice dip, for charity, over the long weekend) leads a battered and bruised team that appears out of ideas, out of puff.
It has driven the budget deeply into the red, to intergenerational levels (almost $11bn by 2028-29). In a pre-poll panic, Rockliff’s team has jettisoned planned asset sales, its previous answer to budget repair.
Public services are a mess and some infrastructure projects have been grossly mismanaged.
Labor, slightly ahead in the polls, will run hard on health and housing, and will benefit from the demise of the state-based Jacqui Lambie Network.
However, it’s hard to see either major party winning a majority.
The “pox on both houses” – and both major parties’ support for the divisive Hobart AFL stadium – will drive many voters into the arms of independents and minor parties.
Ice plunges are supposed to purify and renew. This electoral plunge - should it eventuate - may just leave everyone cold and numb.
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