Tasmania is a state of chaos with no legitimacy and no clue

Tasmanian Premier Jeremy Rockliff, left, and Opposition Leader Dean Winter. Voters will likely punish them both.

2 min read

14 hours ago

After a febrile few days, Tasmania is now in the political equivalent of an induced coma.

The state effectively has no premier, no budget and no idea who is running the show, and probably won’t be any the wiser until Tuesday at the earliest.

Jeremy Rockliff, lacking the confidence of the House of Assembly, has no legitimacy.

However, he can’t ask the Governor for an election just yet because parliament failed to get around to passing the state budget before killing his premiership.

So the island state must wait, in a twilight zone, until Tuesday, when a special supply bill will be passed to keep the lights on if or when an election is called.

Senior federal Liberal Jonno Duniam is the first to break cover and plead with his state counterparts to do “whatever necessary” to prevent that snap election. That “whatever” is dumping Rockliff, who since the no-confidence vote on Thursday has been carrying on like a wounded martyr, ignoring the fact he is guilty as charged by the motion that executed him.

Passed on Thursday with the backing of Labor, the Greens and three of the most disaffected crossbenchers, the motion alleged three failures.

One: Taking the state heavily into debt. This is undeniable. The budget doubles debt to almost $11bn by 2028-29.

Two: Bungling new Bass Strait ferries. Once again undeniably guilty; the government spectacularly didn’t get around to building suitable wharf facilities for the vessels.

Three: Flogging off state-owned power, ports and public transport companies to pay for years of unsustainable pork-barrelling. This is partially true; Rockliff has these assets on the table for sale, although no decisions have been made.

Rockliff’s colleagues appear to believe they have a better chance going to the polls now with him as leader than waiting for the next crisis and facing voters with a less popular alternative, such Michael Ferguson.

Others argue they will be hammered at the poll and are better off changing leader and governing as best they can, for as long as they can.

No one is considering the best interests of the state, which – as business leader Ray Mostogl identified on Friday – do not lie with holding a shambolic second election within 15 months.

Liberal senator Jonathon Duniam urges his state colleagues to rethink their election plans or face a ‘bad outcome’. Picture: Nikki Davis-Jones

Rockliff and his team claim to want an AFL team and stadium, but a fresh election can create only more uncertainty and risk for both.

Surely a better outcome for those barracking for the embryonic Devils would be a new Liberal leader, working with a hopefully more flexible AFL to salvage the dream?

It’s hard to see the minority Liberals, polling at a 20-year low, retaining – much less expanding – their number of seats. Labor is narrowly ahead in the polls but will struggle to win a majority.

So the state would likely end up with another minority government. What then, a third election?

Both major parties will tell voters the other is to blame for the shemozzle. Likely, voters will blame them both, benefiting crossbenchers – and ensuring the cycle of chaos continues.