That escalated quickly. What started as a tactical wedge in the Tasmanian parliament on Tuesday had by evening become a fully-fledged political crisis.
By Wednesday, the state appeared ungoverned and potentially ungovernable, at least in the short term.
The drama began with Labor Opposition Leader Dean Winter throwing down a challenge to the crossbench, which keeps the minority Rockliff government in power. Winter was worried the Greens, independents and one JLN MP were painting themselves as the “true opposition”: lambasting the government for its every move while effectively “propping them up”.
Winter’s solution? Challenge them to back a no-confidence motion against the Liberal Premier – for wrecking the state’s finances, planning privatisations and basically bungling everything his government touches.
If enough pledged support, he told them, he would move the motion. If they refused, “they will show Tasmanians that a vote for anyone except Labor is a vote for the Liberals”.
It seemed a smart tactical move, forcing the crossbench to walk the talk and potentially the Liberals to change leader.
But Kristie Johnston, Andrew Jenner, Craig Garland and eventually the Greens, opted to support the motion. And then Rockliff - so far backed by his colleagues - dug in for a duel, placing the state on the path to an early election no one wants.
Unless that internal support for Rockliff changes, it appears that when the long debate is over and the motion finally passes, he will drive to Government House. In an extraordinary case of bad timing, Governor Barbara Baker is out of the state, leaving it to recently appointed Chief Justice Christopher Shanahan to deal with the jilted Premier, as acting governor.
Many pundits believe that, given that the last election was less than 15 months ago, Shanahan will be unlikely to agree to a snap poll.
More likely, he will inquire whether the Liberals under a different leader might command the confidence of the assembly.
That may finally prove the trigger for a leadership rival – wily conservative Eric Abetz, dour treasurer Guy Barnett or ambitious youngster Felix Ellis – to take the reins.
If not, Shanahan may ask ¬Winter to test his support. The Labor leader does not want to -govern in these circumstances – a cooked budget and only 10 MPs out of 35.
But he probably would gain the confidence of most crossbenchers, with the Greens already flagging likely support.
It’s unlikely either a new Liberal premier or Winter would abandon the AFL stadium. But they might – and probably should – use the crisis to try to get some more wriggle-room from the league: on timelines, penalties for late delivery, on the roof, or even on the site.
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