Chaos and election looms as Tasmanian Premier Jeremy Rockliff rolled by parliament

Just who is running Tasmania? That appears unclear, amid political turmoil and high-stakes brinkmanship threatening the second state election in 15 months.

Dean Winter, right, has tabled a no-confidence motion against Premier Jeremy Rockliff.

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Tasmania is in political limbo, with a lame-duck premier attempting to force an early election rather than resign - and no-one sure who will be leading the state by the weekend.

The island state’s beleaguered Liberal Premier, Jeremy Rockliff, is expected to visit acting governor Christopher Shanahan on or before Thursday morning to call an early election, rather than resign due to an ongoing no-confidence motion he appears certain to lose.

Despite losing the confidence of a majority of MPs for his minority government, Jeremy Rockliff on Wednesday vowed to “fight to my last breath”.

For now, it appears his shaken Liberals colleagues are standing by him, resisting the urge to cut him loose or accept any invitation by Chief Justice Shanahan to change leaders.

That means Labor leader Dean Winter may be called on to try to form a government - an invitation, with just 10 seats out of 35, sources suggest he is unlikely to accept.

Barring any change by the key players, such a standoff would force Tasmanians to the polls for a second time within 15 months, with a state budget f

rozen in parliament, threatening payment of public service wages.

Labor leader Dean Winter has secured the support of the Greens and three independents to oust Mr Rockliff, with grievances cited including alleged budget mismanagement, bungled ferry infrastructure projects, a privatisation agenda and the AFL stadium.

Mr Winter told the House of Assembly Mr Rockliff was taking state net debt from $1 billion when he became Premier in April 2022 to almost $11 billion by 2028-29.

“Jeremy Rockliff is sending Tasmania broke and his only plan to fix it is to sell Tasmanian assets that Tasmanians built together over the past 100 years,” Mr Winter said.

The Australian understands the Liberals encouraged key business figures to try to persuade Mr Winter to back-down on the motion, while also trying unsuccessfully to persuade two of the three independents to change their stance.

Mr Rockliff, whose Liberals secured just 14 of 35 seats at the March 2024 election, traded barbs with Mr Winter about who would be to blame for an early election.

New renders of the proposed Macquarie Point stadium, which is severely under threat should Mr Rockliff lose power.

“An election just over 12 months since the last one - that’s the last thing Tasmania needs,” Mr Rockliff said. “That’s the last thing Tasmanians want. Investment and business confidence would go off a cliff.

“Because the budget hasn’t been passed, nurses, doctors, firefighters and police would risk not being paid.”

Mr Rockliff told the Assembly Mr Winter was “reckless and weak” and placing a lust for power above Tasmania’s interets. “This day may not end well for me but this day will define you,” he said.

However, Mr Winter said Labor would continue to offer supply to a new Liberal premier and had been forced into the no confidence motion by budget mismanagement. “We need to change the trajectory of our public finances,” Mr Winter said.

Some Liberals floated offering concessions to win back crossbenchers, such as dropping the government’s privatisation agenda or even the Hobart AFL stadium.

Approaches to key independent Craig Garland and JLN MP Andrew Jenner - who, with independent Kristie Johnston, are backing the motion - were rebuffed, with both suggesting it was too late to trade outcomes for support.

Governor Barbara Baker is out of the state, likely requiring Lieutenant Governor Christopher Shanahan, the Chief Justice, to handle the crisis.

The vice-regal representative is by convention expected to suggest the Liberals try to govern with another leader, with ministers Eric Abetz, Felix Ellis and Guy Barnett all seen as potential replacements.

However, Liberal sources suggested the party room was adamant no-one would accept that offer, forcing Chief Justice Shanahan to invite Mr Winter to try to form government.

The Labor leader is yet to clarify his position but is known to be reluctant to be seen to govern with support for the Greens, despite offers of support from Greens leader Rosalie Woodruff.

Minister Eric Abetz, left, Mr Rockliff and Deputy Premier Guy Barnett during the debate over the no-confidence motion. Picture: Nikki Davis-Jones

Dr Woodruff said her party would be willing to work with a minority Labor government . “The Greens will work in good faith in any negotiations,” she said.

Tasmania’s Football Club, the Tasmania Devils, voiced “great concern” about the political chaos.

“Like the rest of the community, we are unsure what will happen today and what the impacts of any actions taken might be,” the club said in a statement. “What we do know is that uncertainty presents a serious risk for jobs, investment and growth.”

However, both major parties reassured the AFL they remained committed to the controversial Hobart AFL stadium, which is a condition for entry to the league.

The latest opinion poll, by EMRS in May, showed Labor ahead of the Liberals for the first time in many years, but only just: 31 per cent to 29 per cent, with independents on 17 per cent, the Greens 14 per cent, and JLN 6 per cent.