Fortify where we must: Anthony Albanese urged to boost north defences by US think tank

The Albanese government must transform and fortify northern Australia into an allied military stronghold, to respond to the ‘growing possibility’ of conflict with China, says a key US think tank.

US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth, left, and Defence Minister Richard Marles in Singapore in May. Picture: US Department of Defence

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The Albanese government must transform and fortify northern Australia into an allied military stronghold for the region, with more air bases, ports and a long range-strike arsenal to respond to the “growing possibility” of ­conflict with China, according to a major report by a key US ­think tank.

The study by Washington’s Centre for Strategic and Budgetary Assessment, a highly influential voice in US military circles, says the rapid rise of China has made northern Australia a pivotal piece of real estate for western allies. “If Australia is to remain an Indo-Pacific gateway, it must be fortified into a stronghold (which) would anchor the southern flank of allied efforts in the Indo-Pacific region,” the report says.

“Northern Australia can serve as a venue where friendly forces train and experiment in peacetime, as the base from which they deploy, and as a hub that sustains them in wartime.”

The report comes amid friction between the Trump administration and the Albanese government over the need for Australia to commit to higher levels of defence spending. The government has resisted calls by US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth to lift defence spending to 3.5 per cent of GDP from the current 2 per cent.

It also comes as Australia and the US have increasingly divergent views on China, with the government moving closer to Beijing after Anthony Albanese’s six-day visit there last week, while the Trump administration is ramping up its trade war and its strategic rivalry with the communist regime.

The report, authored by former US deputy assistant secretary of defence Thomas Mahnken, says: “With China’s expanding reach and the growing possibility of conflict, Australia can no longer ignore the possibility that it will be attacked. Australia’s strategic geography still works in its favour, but the resources available to meet the threat are limited, as is the time available to do so.’

Dr Mahnken, who served in George W. Bush’s administration, is an influential player in the US defence community. His views in the report will shape the policies of both congress and the Trump administration.

The report calls out the Albanese government for failing to match its rhetoric about the deteriorating strategic outlook with robust increases in defence spending. “Australian defence spending increases have yet to materialise,” it states. “In fact, defence spending has marginally decreased due to inflation and the rising cost of US-supplied equipment.”

It says the government’s plans to strengthen defence assets in northern Australia are insufficient to meet the challenge China now poses and warns new thinking is required.

“Were the Australian government to build up northern Australia in a serious way, it would render a Chinese suppression campaign against Australian bases extremely difficult,” the report says.

“Existing efforts are, however, likely to be insufficient to the needs of a major conflict.”

The 2023 Defence Strategic Review recommended upgrading and hardening Australia’s northern network of bases, ports, and barracks, including RAAF bases Learmonth, Curtin, Darwin, Tindal, Scherger, and Townsville.

The US report acknowledges this but says much more is needed.

“Although there are efforts under way to upgrade and expand Australia’s military infrastructure and make it more resilient, they do not match the threat in scope, scale, or urgency,” it says.

“An expanded, resilient defence infrastructure in northern Australia should be sized to serve the needs of not just the Australian Defence Force but also of the United States and other partners from the region and beyond.

“This should include requirements for accommodation, messing, and parking for the full gamut of forces.

“As it stands, the ADF cannot house its own forces on base, let alone those of allies and partners.”

It says the only way to fortify northern Australia properly is to expand the number of facilities – airfields, ports, and logistics and maintenance facilities – that could be used in time of war.

The report says it is not enough for Australia just to engage in defensive upgrades across its north; it will also need to invest in larger and more devastating long-range strike weapons than are currently planned.

Australia says it will invest $28bn-$35bn for targeting and long-range strike over the decade from 2024 to 2033, but the report says more is needed.

“The growing threat to Australia likely calls for a more robust capability,” it says. “If Australia needs the ability and flexibility to reach the South China Sea or the Asian mainland, then the ADF is woefully unprepared.”

It raises the option of Australia purchasing intermediate-range ballistic missiles or even the sixth-generation US B-21 stealth bomber to increase strike potential. Northern Australia also urgently needs “an integrated air, drone, and missile defence system to protect key facilities, enhance survivability, and complicate the Chinese calculus when considering strikes”.

The report says China’s rapid military build-up in the region and its development of long-range strike capabilities, including long-range cruise missiles fired from its bombers or submarines, has made Australia “more vulnerable than it was in recent decades”.

“China’s acquisition of long-range strike capabilities – missiles and aircraft, but also space and cyber capabilities – has brought Australia in range of the PLA,” it says. “China’s missiles and aircraft pose a limited but growing threat to Australia. Ballistic missiles could reach their targets in tens of minutes, and China’s development of hypersonic weapons adds a new dimension to the threat.”

But it also says that Australia sits in a “geographical sweet spot” in relation to China.

“Although Australia is not invulnerable … it is far enough from China to avoid having to face the volume of missile fires that confront Taiwan and Japan while being close enough to the scene of potential conflicts, such as Taiwan and the South China Sea, to be operationally relevant,” it says.

The report accepts fortification of northern Australia to deal effectively with the China threat would be “a significant undertaking for Australia”. “But the pace of the threat demands that the Australian government move with a sense of urgency,” it adds.