Australia and the US inhabit different realities when it comes to China, with both nations promoting contrasting narratives about their relations with Beijing.
Donald Trump sees America as being locked in a vast competition. His objective is to ensure ongoing US dominance over China in economic, technological and military terms.
His regime of global tariffs is partly aimed at disrupting the Chinese export-led economic model that has distorted the global trading system.
On Wednesday, the US President launched his most recent offensive by signing an order to “boost American AI technologies” and “extend American leadership in AI”.
Framed as a national security objective, the goal is to out-muscle China in the AI race, decrease dependence on systems developed by US adversaries and ensure American standards and governance models are adopted across the globe.
Speaking in Washington, Trump said he would “do whatever it takes to lead the world” and claimed America was already “leading China very substantially in AI”.
By contrast, Anthony Albanese is pivoting Australia towards deeper economic co-operation with Beijing. This was the whole intent of his six-day trip to Beijing.
Albanese secured a series of fresh arrangements deepening co-operation with China on trade, agriculture and tourism. A new policy dialogue on steel decarbonisation will commence, while a review will aim to improve the decade-old China-Australia free-trade agreement.
“This is about stabilising the relationship. It was at a bad point prior to our election in 2022. Since then, we have seen over $20bn of trade impediments removed,” he said. “We have different political systems, we have different values. But we shouldn’t allow our differences to define us.”
There is no doubt Albanese remains committed to the US and the alliance as the cornerstone of Australian security. It is equally clear that relations with Washington are fraught and there is now a clear difference in how both nations are approaching Beijing.
How the Trump administration responds to Australia’s management of the China relationship is a work in progress. Yet there are already major warning signs.
While Trump does not talk about the strategic deterrence of China, his Defence Secretary, Pete Hegseth, and Pentagon policy chief Elbridge Colby say it is a top priority.
Hegseth has asked Australia to lift defence spending to 3.5 per cent of GDP, but this remains a point of disagreement.
Australia’s defence budget and Canberra’s attitude towards China may also feed into the AUKUS review being led by Colby, a man who has already asked Australia what position it would take in the event of a US conflict with China over Taiwan.
In addition, the Pentagon is worried AUKUS will eat up too much of Australia’s defence budget by taking funds away from other capabilities.
Former prime minister Scott Morrison – who says defence spending should be increased to 3.5 per cent of GDP over the decade – has long argued that Labor must not shy away from promoting AUKUS in Washington as a military deterrent against China. After all, this was the original intent of the agreement.
Yet Labor has been reluctant to do so. Speaking before the house select committee on the Chinese Communist Party in Washington, Morrison’s concerns with Australia’s current approach were made clear. He said it was vital that Western democracies did not “go to sleep on the threat” posed by Beijing.
“Engagement is good. It’s better than the alternative,” he said. “But if we think that is going to produce a change in the mindset of Beijing about what their objectives are, then frankly we’re kidding ourselves.”
The sounding of these alarm bells from the Australian architect of AUKUS will not go unnoticed by the Trump administration.
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