Anthony Albanese’s mission: save the AUKUS pact

Anthony Albanese is preparing a series of major defence funding announcements as his government scrambles to lock in support from Donald Trump on the AUKUS pact.

Donald and Melania Trump in Washington on Thursday, left, and Richard Marles and Anthony Albanese in a Virginia-class submarine. Picture: AP

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Anthony Albanese is preparing a series of major defence funding announcements and will ensure Australia delivers on its pledge to service US nuclear submarines from 2027, as his government scrambles to lock in support from Donald Trump on the $368bn AUKUS pact.

The Prime Minister on Friday will fly from Canberra on a critical one-week overseas trip that will bring him face to face with the President for the first time, amid concerns from the US that AUKUS will force it to deliver major funding and defence capabilities to a country that has not committed to support Washington in a conflict over Taiwan.

Ahead of Mr Albanese travelling to Fiji, the US and Canada, the Pentagon on Thursday announced a snap 30-day review of the AUKUS nuclear submarine deal, led by influential Defence Under Secretary for Policy, Elbridge Colby, who has expressed concerns about Australian defence spending and American industrial shipbuilding capacity.

As G7 leaders prepare to gather in the Canadian town of Kananaskis over the weekend amid rising tensions between the US and Iran, The Australian understands Mr Trump is yet to lock in any bilateral meetings with counterparts including Mr Albanese.

While the Prime Minister faces a backlash over so far resisting a concerted push from Washington to lift defence spending to 3.5 per cent of GDP, US government ­officials said they believed the meeting with Mr Trump was likely to proceed.

They told The Australian that, on top of the view Canberra should lift investment in defence, there was concern over giving submarines to a country that had not expressed willingness to join any conflict over Taiwan.

AUKUS had also always been considered “Australia’s idea”, with the need to justify the project resting firmly with Canberra, the sources said.

Defence Minister Richard Marles said he had known about the US AUKUS review “for some time” and welcomed it. Both the British and Australian governments had also conducted reviews into the defence pact. Mr Marles singled out Australia’s financial contributions to the American shipbuilding industrial base and said “AUKUS is under way right now … activities are happening under the banner of AUKUS”.

“We’re really confident about the progress of AUKUS and we’re confident about how it will proceed under the Trump Administration,” he said.

Former prime minister Scott Morrison, who hatched the AUKUS deal with Joe Biden and Boris Johnson in 2021, said the focus of the review was not new and “rightly centres on US submarine production rates”.

“This is a known and genuine challenge for the US industrial base,” Mr Morrison told Sky News. “This goes directly to the maintenance and expansion of the US submarine fleet, and it’s an area where Australia is already uniquely contributing under AUKUS Pillar I.

“I’ve known Elbridge for some years and he’s made observations in the past. He’s a pretty straight shooter in my experience. This is really about what can the US produce and how can they lift their own production capability and so they can meet their obligations that have been set out under AUKUS.”

Australian National University professor of international security and intelligence studies John Blaxland said Mr Colby had a “US-first, zero-sum approach to the submarine allocation”.

“For him, the question is – we can’t be 100 per cent sure that, in a conflict, Australia would be on our side – which is true,” Professor Blaxland told The Australian.

But he said “any self-respecting democracy” could not commit in advance to something that was outside the scope of its treaty obligations – in this case, the ANZUS alliance. “Taiwan is not in the treaty,” he said.

Mr Albanese, who will meet ­Fijian Prime Minister Sitiveni ­Rabuka on Friday, is expected to hold formal talks on the sidelines of the G7 summit with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, ­Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and new South Korean President Lee Jae-myung.

Mr Albanese will visit the US west-coast city of Seattle on the weekend to meet business leaders and talk up the Australia-US trade relationship amid concerns over Mr Trump’s tariffs. Government sources said he would likely travel to Washington DC later this year for a meeting with the President at the White House.

The Australian understands the Albanese government was first made aware of the AUKUS review ahead of the May 30 meeting between Mr Marles and US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore. Mr Hegseth, who discussed AUKUS with Mr Marles during the meeting, both privately and publicly urged his counterpart to lift Australia’s defence spending to 3.5 per cent “as soon as possible”.

He also issued a stark warning over the “imminent threat” posed by China to Taiwan.

As the US, Japan, Britain and other Indo-Pacific allies significantly lift defence budgets amid Chinese military expansion and aggression in the region, the ­Albanese government’s defence spend is currently projected to hit 2.33 per cent by 2033-34.

The AUKUS review, which Australian officials believe is not directly linked to defence spending, has been ordered by Mr Hegseth to ensure “this initiative of the previous (Biden) administration … is aligned with the President’s America First agenda”.

The Australian understands the Albanese government – under pressure from former defence ministers, Labor leaders including Kim Beazley, the Coalition and ­security analysts to lift the defence budget to at least 3 per cent of GDP – will increase defence spending over the coming months.

In addition to ensuring Fleet Base West in Western Australia is ready to receive US nuclear submarines from 2027, which was agreed to in the AUKUS deal, the government is expected to unveil extra funding for projects including the Henderson consolidation project (where AUKUS submarines will be built and maintained) and the SEA3000 program adding 11 frigates to the fleet.

After Mr Hegseth this month warned about the rise of China and the risk of Beijing invading Taiwan by 2027, senior officials believe Australia will be ready by that year to begin Submarine Rotational-Force West, which is the first phase in the AUKUS Pillar 1 ­program. Under the AUKUS agreement, one British Astute class submarine and up to four US Virginia class submarines will have a rotational presence at the HMAS Stirling base.

Given the pressures on the US navy fleet, Australian maintenance and support operations could help the Americans keep at least up to two extra boats on the water and not stuck in queues.

While senior Australian officials don’t believe Mr Trump will tear up the AUKUS pact – a 30-day review has given them more optimism than a longer investigation would have – they are on alert and watching carefully given the unpredictable nature of the Trump administration. Some US and Australian defence experts said there was a chance that the Colby review could result in changes to the AUKUS agreement “at the periphery”.

Australia’s ambassador to the US, Kevin Rudd, who was at Parliament House in Canberra on Thursday, is understood to be in close communication with Mr Albanese over the review.