Teals hopeful of second wave with NSW Liberals worried about several blue-ribbon seats

While voting remains in its infancy, the early running on Sydney’s northern beaches and lower north shore looked dire for the Coalition.

Anthony Roberts voting in the north shore at Lane Cove

NSW Premier Dominic Perrottet is staring down the barrel of losing a raft of seats to teals and independents across Sydney, with Willoughby, Wakehurst and Wollondilly all of serious concern.

While voting remains in its infancy, the early running on Sydney’s northern beaches and lower north shore looked dire for the Coalition, with Northern Beaches Council mayor Michael Regan polling ahead of the Liberal candidate Toby Williams.

The fate of Liberal Wollondilly MP Nathaniel Smith also looked uncertain, with independent Judy Hannan polling more strongly than expected.

In Willoughby, the seat of former premier Gladys Berejiklian, independent Larissa Penn appeared to be in a formidable position, leaving Tim James at risk of being bundled out of parliament just over a year into his political career.

The Teals are running in affluent electorates across the lower north shore, the northern beaches and the eastern suburbs, where several independents helped to sweep out Scott Morrison’s government the federal election last May, including North Sydney’s Kylea Tink, Wentworth’s Allegra Spender and Mackellar’s Sophie Scamps.

The independents are once again being supported by multi-millionaire businessman Simon Holmes a Court’s Climate 200 outfit.

Independent candidate Victoria Davidson, who is running for the seat of Lane Cove against planning minister Anthony Roberts, told The Australian she had been “encouraged” by the support shown to her at Saturday’s polls, and was feeling optimistic ahead of the results.

“(The Liberal party) has not moved on but we have,” she said. ”There‘s a demographic change.”

Liberal sources in the minutes before polls closed said they were increasingly concerned about their hold over Lane Cove, Wollondilly, and Manly based on interactions at booths.

But strict funding caps, a missing “ScoMo” factor and an optional preferential voting system mean the Teals are facing a steeper battle than their federal counterparts, pollsters say.

NSW‘s electoral funding laws, which cap individual donations at $3300 and limit the campaign spending of independent candidates to $198,700, differ from those in the federal election, which saw $4.6m spent by just the three winning Teal candidates in NSW.

Ms Davidson said the caps had hindered her campaign and said the system was “set up to help the incumbent”.

”The incumbents have a pool of money,” Ms Davidson said. “We started with nothing, zero.”

Ms Davidson said she supported stronger action on climate and the environment, and will prioritise integrity in politics if elected this weekend.

But integrity isn’t as much a problem for NSW voters as it was in the federal election, RedBridge pollster Simon Welsh says.

He told The Australian the “hatred” of former prime minister Scott Morrison that fuelled the Teal wins and the eventual overturn of the Liberal government was not present in the state election.

“You just don‘t have a villain in the story like you did in the federal campaign where that Scott Morrison brand, by the time he got to the election, was so negative,” RedBridge pollster Simon Welsh says.

“You don‘t have that same sort of degree of toxicity on the Perrottet brand and on the New South Wales Liberal brand. And of course, you’ve got folk in there like Treasurer and Environment Minister Matt Kean who speaks quite neatly into the values of prospective independent voters.”

This was a key reason why there were no Teals elected in the Victorian election either, Mr Welsh said.

“I wouldn‘t be surprised if, like in Victoria, we see a few independents get really close in one or two seats, but maybe just fall a little bit short,” Mr Welsh said.

When The Australian asked Mr Holmes-a-Court whether he thought the NSW Teals would fall to the same fate as the Victorians, he indicated that, if it were to happen, it would be the fault of NSW’s optional preferential voting system.

“Our analysis shows that if NSW voters had to number every box, like we all must at federal elections, most of these community independents would win,” he said.

North Shore Teal independent candidate Helen Conway, Source:, https://www.facebook.com/HelenConway4NorthShore

Independent candidate Helen Conway said she had a “real chance to win the seat of North Shore and bring the community’s voice back to parliament.”

Ms Conway is challenging longstanding Liberal MP Felicity Wilson for the lower north shore seat which has an estimated margin of 11.1 per cent.

“At this NSW election, I am hoping for a minority government that relies on an expanded cross bench to lead,” Ms Conway said.

“A stronger cross bench in NSW will make a big difference in improving the quality of government legislation, in driving policy reform and, importantly, in holding the government of the day to account.”