NSW election: How Labor knew its punches were landing

Two subtle shifts in the Coalition’s messaging in the past month demonstrated to strategists in Labor HQ they were on the ascendancy.

Labor leader Chris Minns visits Sydney Markets in Homebush on Friday. Picture: John Grainger

Two subtle shifts in the Coalition’s messaging in the past month demonstrated to strategists in Labor HQ they were on the ascendancy.

With NSW voters heading to the polls on Saturday, two key battlegrounds will likely determine the election: between the ALP, Liberals and One Nation in the city’s west; and pitting independents against Liberals in the ­affluent Lower North Shore and Northern Beaches.

However, it has been the less-obvious but just as important ­rhetorical clash over key policies that may have delivered the election for the ALP.

Labor leader Chris Minns’ core message – the failure of the government’s fiscal strategy of selling off publicly owned assets, tying privatisation to the cost-of-living crisis hitting the state – appears to have won the battle of hearts and minds.

Premier Dominic Perrottet’s pitch for a historic fourth Coalition term was predicated on voters connecting the need to sell roads and power assets to the delivery of a massive pipeline of mega infrastructure projects by three successive Coalition governments.

One senior ALP source, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the first win became apparent after Mr Perrottet was forced to ditch successive Coalition’s economic strategies under sustained pressure from Labor.

After spending weeks trying to walk a noncommittal line saying he had “no plans” to sell off any more of the state’s assets, he came out strongly in late February, saying: “I said we are not privatising assets; I can’t be clearer.”

“Privatisation is clearly a vote driver for Labor; we’ve tried to take it off the table so we can focus on our stuff,” one senior Liberal said.

Dominic Perrottet campaigns with wife Helen and daughter Celeste, 1, in Penrith in Sydney’s west on Friday. Picture: NCA Newswire/ Monique Harmer

The damage to Mr Perrottet became apparent during the final The Daily Telegraph/Sky People’s Forum leader’s debate in front of 100 undecided voters on Wednesday. The Premier faced a barrage of hostile questions on privatisation, forcing him to simultan­eously highlight his government’s record on using the sale of assets to deliver infrastructure, while putting a line through asset recycling if re-elected.

The audience called the debate decisively in favour of Mr Minns, with 48 per cent backing the Labor leader, compared to only 32 per cent who voted for Mr Perrottet. 25 per cent were undecided.

The second win came in the weeks leading up to the election, as Mr Perrottet subtly stopped referring to the “wages cap”, with Labor sources saying the attack on the capping on public sector wages “misread” the electorate who were acutely aware of the pressures facing the state.

“Their fundamental error was the attack on the wages cap, which has been our biggest asset in addition to privatisation. Over the … past two years, voters have had more exposure to the education and health sectors at any point,” one senior Labor source told The Weekend Australian.

“Perrottet doesn’t refer to the ‘wages cap’ anymore because they lose in message. We were testing the shit out of that for three or four weeks. Our message won every time against theirs. When he attacked the wages cap, people didn’t think he was attacking teachers and nurses, they just wondered how he was going to fix the problems facing the sectors.”

Instead, Mr Perrottet began referring to Labor’s unsustainable “wages bill” – constructed around the Coalition’s core message of strong economic management against the fiscal irresponsibility of a Labor government.

“Voters are less worried about surpluses and budgets, and more about how the government can help them,” a Liberal source said.

Role of Perrottet

Despite being initially viewed by many voters as a conservative fundamentalist, both parties agree Mr Perrottet has been one of the ­Coalition’s major assets. The problem has been trying to overcome the “it’s time” factor facing a 12-year-old government, exacerbated by a succession of scandals.

“Perrottet hasn’t been able to change the fundamentals. He was f..ked from the beginning,” one Labor source said. “To his credit he has done almost everything he can to change the narrative.”

Contrasting with federal Labor’s fixation on Scott Morrison during the federal election campaign, making the vote a referendum on his personality, Mr Minns has taken a diametrically opposite strategy, referring to Mr Perrottet as a good person leading a terrible government.

“People have warmed to Dom. There were question marks about him, but he’s proven himself to be a centrist, pragmatic leader. People see it is a competent government. He’s still putting forward an agenda,” one senior Liberal said.

“But the ‘It’s time’ thing is driving votes away.”

State of play

As voters head to the polls, Labor is confident of securing a bag of seats: Heathcote and Leppington, already notionally in their column; East Hills; and Parramatta.

But other seats higher up the pendulum – Goulburn, Ryde, Oatley and South Coast – that are vital to Labor forming a majority remain up in the air.

Regardless, Labor MPs are still hopeful of being able to form a government without support from the crossbench.

“The pathway to majority is difficult but not impossible,” he said.