Newspoll: Majority in mood for change after just one term of Labor, hung parliament looms

A majority of voters do not believe Labor deserves to be re-elected, but they remain hesitant to swing behind Peter Dutton in sufficient numbers for the Coalition to win a majority.

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A majority of voters do not believe the federal Labor government ­deserves to be re-elected, with Anthony Albanese’s approval rating hitting a record low of minus 21.

But voters remain reluctant to swing behind Peter Dutton in sufficient numbers for the Coalition to win in a majority government, as MPs prepare for a federal election to be called potentially within weeks. An exclusive Newspoll conducted for The Australian shows the Coalition maintaining a 51-49 per cent two-party-preferred lead over Labor despite a one-point fall in its primary vote to 38 per cent.

Labor’s primary vote remains stuck on an equal record low of 31 per cent, compared to its 2022 election result of 32.6 per cent. The two-party-preferred result indicates a 3.1 per cent swing against Labor since the last election.

On a uniform basis and taking into account new margins created by electoral redistributions, the swing would be equivalent to the loss of seven or eight seats and enough to prevent Mr Albanese forming a majority government.

However, it is still only half the size of the swing the Coalition would require to win in its own right, leaving a hung parliament the most likely outcome if the poll numbers were to be replicated at an election. The Newspoll surveyed 1244 voters nationally ­between February 10 and 14 and follows a two-week parliamentary sitting which many MPs believe will have been the last before the election, with scepticism growing that Jim Chalmers will deliver a budget on March 25 as planned.

The political contest has been dominated by the trade dispute between Canberra and Washington following Donald Trump’s decision to impose tariffs on Australian steel and aluminium exports.

Labor has tried to steer the ­debate to health, announcing several billion dollars in spending promises, including a women’s health package – which the ­Coalition said it would support – and more funding for the Northern Territory.

Anti-Semitism also continued to dominate following the sacking of two NSW nurses over an online tirade in which they threatened to kill Israeli patients. But there has been little movement in the News­poll numbers since the first poll of the year in late January. The Greens remain on 12 per cent, with One Nation maintaining a primary vote of 7 per cent.

Other minor parties and independents have lifted a point to 12 per cent, at the expense of the Coalition in the latest poll, suggesting the protest vote against both major parties remains strong.

Mr Albanese’s approval rating remained unchanged on a record low of 37 per cent. But with a one-point rise in dissatisfaction, the Prime Minister’s net negative approval rating rose to minus 21 which is the lowest since he became leader.

By comparison, Mr Dutton’s approval rating rose a point to 41 per cent, which is the highest he has achieved as Opposition Leader. His disapproval rating remained unchanged on 51 per cent, giving him a net negative approval rating of minus 10.

This is the largest margin in Mr Dutton’s favour since the last election.

In the head-to-head contest on who would make the better prime minister, Mr Albanese retained a slight advantage, with his lead rising two points to 5 per cent. There is, however, almost universal agreement among voters that Labor does not deserve a second term of government. A total of 34 per cent of voters said Labor deserved to be re-elected, with 53 per cent saying it was time for change.

The sentiment was strongest in Queensland, with only 23 per cent of voters believing Labor should be re-elected, with 58 per cent backing change. In Victoria, 54 per cent said someone else should be given a go and only 34 per cent believing Labor should be re-elected. In NSW, 37 per cent believed Labor deserved to be re-elected and 50 per cent saying no.

The disapproval of the Albanese government’s performance was strongest among those aged over 65, with only 25 per cent believing it deserved to be re-elected. Among all other age groups it was almost uniform, ranging between 37 per cent among 18 to 34-year-old voters and 50 to 64-year-olds and 36 per cent among 35 to 49-year-olds.

There was little difference along gender lines, with 53 per cent of male voters believing it was time for someone else to have a go and 52 per cent of female voters. However, a larger undecided vote was present for female voters with only 32 per cent believing Labor should be re-elected and 16 per cent saying they didn’t know compared to 36 per cent of men believing Labor should be returned to office and 11 per cent undecided.

The same question was asked of West Australian voters two weeks ago, with only 35 per cent saying they believed that the Albanese government deserved to be re-elected.

The latest Newspoll reflects a necessary but minor adjustment to assumed preference flows from One Nation which are showing a stronger conservative bias since the last election.

Campbell White, head of Pyxis Polling & Insights which independently administers Newspoll for The Australian said: “Newspoll uses previous election flows to calculate two-party-preferred because it has consistently proved to be more reliable than other methods. However, based on what happened at the Queensland state election and through questions where we ask respondents about their intentions, it is clear that One Nation preferences are likely to flow more strongly to the Coalition than they did at the 2022 federal election.

“For this reason, we are adjusting the calculation of preferences accordingly.”