A majority of voters may believe the Albanese government deserves to be booted out of office after a single term.
This sentiment is reflected to some degree in Labor’s record low primary vote of 31 per cent.
But there is no apparent readiness yet to convert this sentiment into action. There is certainly no rush to elect a Dutton-led majority Coalition government.
The Liberal/Nationals’ failure to lift their primary vote into the 40s is as much an indictment on the Coalition as is Labor’s poor standing a blight on its own prospects. If Anthony Albanese has realistic hopes of being returned to office with a majority government, absolutely everything must go right for Labor. For the Coalition to pull off an upset victory, everything must go wrong.
The most likely outcome is something in between, which points to minority government of some description. A potential nightmare scenario for either side, and arguably for the nation.
Nothing has shifted in Newspoll yet to suggest that either Albanese or Peter Dutton would be in a position to form government in their own right if the current trend were to spill into polling day.
In fact, there is remarkably little change between the first Newspoll of the year and the latest, despite the expectation of an election being called sooner rather than later.
The primary vote for both the major parties remains at near record lows at 69 per cent combined. At the last election it was 68.3 per cent. The picture of disillusionment remains. Which way it breaks – if it does at all – once voters sharpen their focus during the campaign is hard to predict.
But it would be fair bet that if the Coalition can nudge 40 per cent, it may be in a better position to form minority government than Labor.
Even on a two-party-preferred vote of 51-49 per cent, the Coalition could come close.
And this is for one simple reason. A swing of between 3 and 4 per cent – the current swing on today’s Newspoll numbers is 3.1 per cent – when translated into a uniform swing against the current pendulum could tip between eight and 12 seats into the Coalition column. This could see a scenario where the two parties are tied on the number of seats in the lower house, at 65 apiece. Dutton would have the greater moral authority to seek support from the independents to form government.
To back Labor under such circumstances, for the teals at least, would completely undermine their claims to being true independents. In reality, Dutton would have to tick all three of the above boxes for this to occur. Higher 2PP, equal or more seats and a higher primary vote. He has two of these already.
It is entirely possible for the Coalition to lift support beyond 40 per cent during the campaign.
Two months out from the 2010 election, the primary vote for the Coalition then led by Tony Abbott dipped to 38 per cent. Within the space of a few weeks, it managed to claw back into the low 40s and post 43.6 per cent at the election.
Granted, Dutton isn’t being aided by the knifing of a prime minister. Yet after a very short honeymoon for Julia Gillard, Labor was tipped into minority government. And this was with a primary vote of 38 per cent! It only managed to achieve this because of some extraordinary sandbagging in NSW.
Despite a far more complex and fractured political environment today, there are similar fundamentals, in that 2010 was the last time a Coalition opposition tried to knock off a first-term Labor government.
A big difference was that there were no One Nation or teals. Doing the maths on preferences was easier than it is now.
This can partly explain why the Coalition vote remains stuck below 40 per cent. It has lost support on the right and from the centre by the re-emergence of Pauline Hanson and the appearance of a disrupter in the teals. This remains Dutton’s challenge.
While at 51-49 per cent of the 2PP vote may well be enough for the Coalition to form a minority government, what sort of Frankenstein’s monster would that be?
To have a shot at winning in its own right, the Coalition must get its primary vote into the low 40s.
It’s not impossible but it is something that has eluded Dutton for the entirety of this term.
Long story short, there is nothing in the latest Newspoll for either side to be excited about.
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