Final count of voice referendum cements Newspoll as the premier poll

The Australian’s Newspoll cemented its place as the most accurate political survey in the country by most accurately predicting the Indigenous voice referendum result.

‘Newspoll said three things about the voice, and all three turned out to be spot on’, Dr Campbell White said.

The Australian’s Newspoll has cemented its place as the most accurate political survey in the country, topping the list for most accurately predicting the Indigenous voice referendum result while being the most precise poll in six out of seven of the most ­recent state and federal elections.

Newspoll, which is administered by Dr Campbell White who has run Newspoll since 2019, predicted a 60-40 result on the morning of the referendum in favour of the no vote.

The final count according to the Australian Electoral Commission was 39.9 per cent, giving Newspoll an error of just 0.1 per cent.

Of the four major series of Australian polls, three out of four significantly overstated the yes vote, with Newspoll being the only exception.

Newspoll was also the only one to correctly indicate that the referendum would falter in all six states.

Psephologist Kevin Bonham, in a blog posted on November 1, said the referendum had been a “triumph” for the polling industry, which had suffered a crisis of confidence in the wake of the 2019 federal election in which every major poll got the result wrong.

“The voice referendum was among the most heavily polled electoral events in Australian ­history, and the single most ­diversely polled, with at least 22 different pollsters releasing some kind of result on the voice since the 2022 federal election,” Dr Bonham wrote.

“The polls taken together told a story that was credible and easy to follow despite the high level of divergence towards the end

“It is pleasing that polling has proved so accurate here despite the referendum attracting the worst level of poll denying I have ever seen.”

Dr Bonham named Newspoll as the most accurate, followed by Freshwater, which published its final poll three weeks before the referendum.

The voice Newspoll was the first administered by Pyxis Polling & Insights.

Pyxis was founded in mid-2023 by Dr White, who has run Newspoll since 2019 and ­designed the new methodology that Newspoll adopted after the 2019 federal election result prompted a review polling methodology. “Political polling is the Formula 1 of the market research industry, where all the tools that the industry relies on like sampling, design and analysis are put to the test,” Dr White said.

“The polls which excel are those that do all of these things well. After 2019 we needed to ­implement major changes to ­address serious weaknesses in all these elements which were common across the industry. The ­results since have indicated that the changes were a resounding success.

“The holy grail for pollsters is not just accuracy, but consistent accuracy. Since we adopted the new methodology in late 2019, Newspoll has been the most ­accurate Australian poll at six out of seven elections and, in the past 24 months, every single two answer final Newspoll has been within 1 per cent of the actual ­result.

“Newspoll is also the most transparent of the published Australian polls and this has resulted in renewed faith in the industry across the board. However, we’re conscious of the fact that Newspoll is not just a poll but, for nearly 40 years, has been the poll Australians rely on.

“In the voice, it was evident early on in our data that the yes vote was higher in inner metropolitan and among those with a university degree. Newspoll’s success can be attributed to the effort that goes into ensuring that these people were not over or under-represented in our samples.

“Newspoll said three things about the voice, and all three turned out to be spot on.

“The first was the overall yes vote of 40 per cent, the second was that the voice would be defeated in all six states, and the third was that turnout would not be lower than is usual for Australian elections and would not advantage either the yes or no camps. Only readers of The Australian were informed of all three of these things.”