Newspoll: Buyer’s remorse for ALP backers as support falls in Victoria, WA

Voters have swung sharply against Labor in key states that helped secure victory for Anthony Albanese at the last election.

Anthony Albanese listens to Peter Dutton in the House of Representatives two days after Australians voted No in the Indigenous voice to parliament referendum. Picture: AFP

Voters have swung sharply against the federal government in key states that helped secure victory for Anthony Albanese at the last election, with Labor losing significant ground in Western Australia and Victoria in the lead-up to the voice referendum.

Approval of the Prime Minister’s performance as leader also suffered a steep decline over the past six months, with large falls in South Australia, where he chose to launch the voice campaign, and in Queensland, where Labor’s primary vote is at its lowest.

An exclusive state by state and demographic Newspoll analysis shows that while Labor maintained its dominant election-­winning lead over the Coalition nationally, there was a notable loss of support for the government among male and younger voters, with the Greens securing strategic demographic gains among professional women.

The analysis reveals significant shifts in party support for Labor in Victoria and WA and a loss of satisfaction with Mr Albanese as leader over the six months prior to the referendum.

There were also warning signs for the Coalition, with the key battleground state of NSW improving slightly for Labor and the less critical state of SA turning against the Liberals and the ­ Nationals.

The Coalition, while recovering ground among younger voters, suffered a loss of support among women voters, with a clear gender gap having re-emerged between the main political parties.

The Newspoll trend points to an averaged loss of electoral ­backing for the Albanese government between March and Oct­ober this year, with a two-point decline in primary vote to 36 per cent, amid a gradual decay in support for the Prime Minister whose net approval ratings have fallen to zero.

Mr Albanese holds a press conference before leaving for Washington. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Martin Ollman

In a key shift in voting intention, the Coalition has made an electoral recovery in WA since the resignation of popular WA Labor premier Mark McGowan.

It has also reclaimed territory in Victoria, which is regarded its worst-performing state, with long-term Labor premier Daniel Andrews having also recently resigned.

According to the analysis, based on a large sample size of 6378 voters, Labor’s primary vote in Victoria has fallen from 41 per cent in March/April to 36 per cent in the August/October surveys.

The Coalition’s primary vote rose from 33 per cent to 35 per cent.

This resulted in an eight-point turnaround in two-party-­preferred support from 58-42 for Labor to 54-46 per cent in the past six months.

The result represents a two-party-preferred swing of 1 per cent against Labor since the May 2022 election in the party’s traditionally strongest state.

However, it would not be enough to see seat gains for the Liberal Party.

In WA, which is regarded as having delivered Labor a majority government federally in 2022, the Coalition has lifted its primary vote five points to 38 per cent, against a two-point fall for Labor to 38 per cent.

The significant improvement for the Liberal Party in a state that has also turned against Mr Albanese personally, represents a 4 per cent two-party-preferred swing against Labor since the start of the year from 57-43 per cent to 54-47 per cent.

This shows a 2 per cent swing against Labor in WA since the last election, which would put at least one of its seat gains at risk.

In NSW, the Coalition primary vote fell a point to 34 per cent, with Labor remaining steady at 38 per cent – producing a slight improvement in the two-party-preferred lead for Labor at 56-44.

In SA, where fewer seats are at stake, the Coalition’s primary vote fell five points to 30 per cent with Labor lifting two points to 40 per cent, and Labor leading 57-43 per cent on a two-party-preferred basis.

In Tasmania, where both major parties polled poorly, the Coalition is on just 25 per cent primary vote and Labor on 30 per cent, with independents and other minor parties - including the Greens and Jacqui Lambie Network - attracting 44 per cent of the vote.

On a two-party-preferred comparison with the May 2022 election, Labor remains ahead of its result in NSW, South Australia and Queensland but is down on its election-night count in Victoria and WA.