Simon Benson
Anthony Albanese entrapped in a crisis of symbolism over outcome as he meets with Biden and Xi
Anthony Albanese is now entrapped in a crisis of symbolism over outcome. It is a political crisis of his own making.
On Monday he will arrive at Andrews Air Force Base outside Washington ahead of a state dinner with US President Joe Biden, before heading to a meeting next week with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing.
Imagery is at the heart of these political expeditions.
Albanese promotes the idea that only Labor can navigate the nexus between the nation’s largest trading partner and Australia’s closest ally – now strategic adversaries – in a world changed fundamentally by the reignition of the enduring ideological dispute.
The meetings occur amid the backdrop of a profoundly changed global dynamic: war in Europe, war in the Middle East and increasing strategic competition closer to home.
There will be clinking of glasses in the Oval Office followed by reflective images of Albanese walking in the footsteps of Whitlam in the Forbidden Palace.
This may be promoted as an assertion of Australian strategic ascendancy but could be equally regarded as a sign of a new Australian faintness following a period of Covid-era assertiveness.
Failure to secure strategically significant benefits in Washington on AUKUS will reflect a weakness of influence. A reluctance to raise the dominant issue of Chinese military aggression – in light of the Pentagon’s recent warning of China’s acceleration of nuclear capability – will be seen as weakness toward Beijing.
There is more at stake here than meets the eye. And the outcome will have significant political ramifications for Albanese with the imagery he is pursuing unlikely to appease a domestic audience that will not avert its gaze from the cost of living pressures it is now enduring.
Albanese, a damaged leader in the wake of the voice referendum, now seeks a narrative that elevates him as a leader that can traverse the chasm: a maintenance of US-Australian cultural and military hegemony against a restoration of Australia-China pragmatic relations.
It’s an almost impossible task without obvious concessions, that goes beyond the fundamentals of its authenticity to the reality of Albanese’s political expectations.
The risk for the Prime Minister is that he will now fail both tests and only add to the political pressures on a Labor government and doubts about his own judgment as the domestic necessity of a response to living standards only increases.
Albanese needs to look beyond imagery and land outcomes that have some meaningful effect at home.
There is every expectation that the Democrats won’t let Albanese walk away without something.
As a fellow centre-left confederate, Biden won’t allow Albanese to walk away empty-handed.
But the bar has been raised over AUKUS and the dysfunction of the US congress limits the promises.
It is now two years since Scott Morrison inked the deal and Albanese signed up to it.
At a minimum, the Prime Minister will want to land something that amounts to progress. At the same time, the CIA will be into Albanese about China. It will be “pegging his ears back” about it, according to one senior intelligence official.
It is also likely that US intelligence officials will raise the issue of the Port of Darwin decision.
The US will be acutely aware of the fact that several days after standing for photos in the Rose Garden, Albanese will be standing in the same spot as Vladimir Putin last week, as a guest of the Chinese dictator.
They will be wondering about Australia’s commitment as it urges the US not to repeat the Obama mistake of taking its eye off the Indo-Pacific.
Meanwhile, average Australian families struggling with their ballooning mortgages will be wondering what it all means for them.
More Coverage
