Newspoll accurately predicted Australians would emphatically vote no to an Indigenous voice to parliament
The failure of Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s referendum on an Indigenous voice to parliament was foreshadowed by exclusive Newspoll polling conducted for The Australian.
The failure of Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s referendum on an Indigenous voice to parliament was foreshadowed by exclusive Newspoll polling conducted for The Australian.
Newspoll’s results during the campaign highlighted the gradual decline in support for the Yes vote and will end up being the closest poll to the final result.
It continues a strong track record of accuracy, which has seen Newspoll produce poll results within 1 per cent of the actual results for all federal and state elections in the past two years.
With the latest numbers showing 39.5 per cent of Australians voted Yes while nearly 60.5 per cent voted No, Newspoll proved to be extremely accurate.
The latest Newspoll published revealed 57 per cent of surveyed voters said they intended to vote No, with only 6 per cent of voters saying they remained undecided.
The survey accurately predicted the final result to be 60-40 against the voice, if the number of undecided voters broke proportionally for both sides of the debate on the day.
The latest Newspoll also accurately predicted that the referendum would fail in all six states and fail the dual test of securing a national majority and a majority of the six states.
The final results were within the margin of error, and it was the only poll which picked up the size of the No vote in both Tasmania and South Australia.
In Tasmania, Newspoll predicted 40 per cent of voters would support the voice, and it is currently sitting at 41. SA, it said 35 per cent would support the voice, which is in line with current vote counts.
Newspoll predicted the two-party preferred figure within one percentage point at the most recent federal, NSW, Victorian and SA elections.
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