Voice referendum Newspoll: Late swing for Yes campaign but nation poised to say No
The Indigenous voice to parliament is set to fail despite a late swing toward a Yes vote in the final days of the campaign, an exclusive Newspoll shows.
The Indigenous voice to parliament is set to fail – and may even fall short of securing a majority in any state – despite a late swing toward a Yes vote in the final days of the campaign as both sides launch their final offensives ahead of the nation’s historic referendum.
As campaign officials from the Yes and No camps warn that a potential low voter turnout could produce a closer result, an exclusive Newspoll conducted for The Weekend Australian shows a three-point swing toward a Yes vote over the past week to 37 per cent. This is the highest level of support for an alteration to the Constitution recognising Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders through an enshrined voice to parliament since the start of the official campaign in early September.
The lift in support is significant and will offer some optimism for the Yes23 campaign, but the improvement in the polls would not be near enough to overcome the current level of opposition.
With 57 per cent of surveyed voters saying they intended to vote No as of Friday – a point down on the previous poll published on Monday – the referendum would be lost if the poll results were reflected at the ballot box on Saturday. Only 6 per cent of voters said they remained undecided. If this number broke proportionally for both sides of the debate on the day, which cannot be predicted, the final result would be 60-40 against the voice.
The strongest level of support for the voice, according to the poll, remains in Victoria, the only state that could produce a majority Yes vote, followed by NSW and Tasmania.
However, the Newspoll found there was not a single state where the Yes vote was ahead of the No vote. This would mean that the referendum would fail the dual test of securing a national majority and a majority of the six states.
In their final pitch to voters, as revealed in The Weekend Australian, Anthony Albanese and Peter Dutton argue that fundamental principles about Australian values are at stake. “Yes means recognising Indigenous Australians as the original inhabitants of this continent,” the Prime Minister said.
“Yes means listening to them on matters that affect them so we get better outcomes. This referendum is our chance to get it right.
“It will only be when we at last listen properly to Indigenous voices that we can close the gap that runs like a chasm through the heart of our country.”
The Opposition Leader, however, called on voters to reject the proposition, saying all Australians deserved to be treated equally under the law.
“A voice will change this fundamental democratic principle conferring a privilege on one set of Australians purely based on their ancestry,” Mr Dutton said.
“You don’t insult your way to victory. You don’t rally people to your cause by questioning their morality. You don’t win votes by dishonestly claiming that those with whom you disagree are peddling misinformation and disinformation or pushing scare campaigns and conspiracy theories. I believe we have the capabilities and commitment as Australians to find solutions to national problems, including Indigenous disadvantage. We don’t need to change our Constitution to do this.”
Support for the voice remains almost 20 points down on the levels enjoyed at the start of the year, with a steady flow of voters moving to a No vote over the past six months amid a bitter campaign wracked by race politics and alleged misinformation tactics.
With the voice having shaped the political contest over the past six weeks, there has been a bump in support for the government in the final week of the campaign with Labor’s primary vote lifting two points to 36 per cent and a one-point fall for the Coalition to 35 per cent. However, the Prime Minister’s approval ratings remain historically low and largely unchanged – with a zero net satisfaction rating – and Mr Dutton suffering a five-point fall. Mr Albanese increased his lead over Mr Dutton as preferred prime minister by three points to 51-33.
The final voice Newspoll shows the vote closest in Victoria with 51 per cent opposed and 43 per cent in favour. In NSW, the split was 54-41 while in Tasmania the No vote was 55 per cent compared with 38 per cent supporting the Yes case. South Australia, which the Yes campaign had claimed was critical to a victory was against the voice by 60 per cent to 33 per cent.
Opposition remained strongest in Western Australia where 65 per cent were opposed and just 28 per cent said they would vote Yes. Opinion was similarly divided in Queensland where 65 per cent said they would vote No and 30 per cent backing a Yes vote. If the “don’t know” vote is allocated proportionally the state figures show the referendum losing 57-43 in NSW, 54-46 in Victoria, 68-32 in Queensland, 65-35 in South Australia, 70-30 in Western Australia and 60-40 in Tasmania.
The latest poll for the national vote included surveys conducted across the country between October 4 and 12, with a large sample size of 2638. The margin of error was plus or minus 2.5.
The results for individual states and demographic breakouts aggregated figures from the Oct 3-6 survey as well as the latest survey. The smaller states were over-sampled to ensure larger sample sizes with 764 polled in NSW, 759 in Victoria, 802 in Queensland, 570 in South Australia, 603 in Western Australia and 303 in Tasmania. The theoretical margins of error for states and demographic breakdowns range from plus or minus 3.7 to 7.5.
Support for the voice remained strongest among younger voters and the university-educated with these two demographics the only ones where the Yes case enjoyed a majority. Among 18 to 34 year olds, 52 per cent said they intended to vote Yes compared with 43 per cent saying they would vote No.
Women were more inclined than men to vote Yes with 40 per cent of female voters backing the voice compared with 34 per cent of men. But the No case still out-polled the Yes case with both.
The No case was strongest among the over 65s with only 28 per cent saying they would vote Yes. This was only slightly less than the 29 per cent of 50 to 64-year-olds in favour of a voice. Among the key demographic of 35 to 49-year-olds, 54 per cent said they planned to vote No against 39 per cent saying they would vote in favour.
The vote was tightest in inner metropolitan suburbs with No slightly ahead, 48 per cent to 45 per cent. This gap widened in the outer metro suburbs and provincial regions to 58-35 and 59-36.
Opposition was strongest in rural areas with 67 per cent opposed and 30 per cent in support.
The Newspoll showed that at a party political level, Labor increased its two-party-preferred lead over the Coalition by two points to 54-46. The Greens primary vote remained unchanged at 12 per cent, Pauline Hanson’s One Nation improved a point to 6 per cent while support for other minor parties and independents fell two points to 11 per cent.
Mr Albanese’s approval rating rose a point to 46 per cent while dissatisfaction with his performance remained unchanged at 46 per cent. Mr Dutton’s approval rating fell two points to 35 per cent while disapproval rose three points to 53 per cent.
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