Low voter turnout threatens No victory

No and Yes voice campaigners have warned of an historic low voter turnout between 80 and 85 per cent, which could narrow the final voice referendum result amid an expected final week swing to Yes.

No and Yes campaigners have warned of a record low voter turnout between 80 and 85 per cent, which could narrow the final voice referendum result amid an expected final week swing to Yes.

Ahead of Saturday’s referendum, senior No campaign figures have tempered expectations of a landslide result due to rising fears that up to two-in-ten Australians will snub Anthony Albanese’s vote to constitutionally enshrine an Indigenous voice to parliament and executive government.

The No campaign, which will have 25,000 volunteers manning booths across the country supported by Liberal and Nationals party members, remains concerned that low voter turnout could deliver a closer than expected final result.

Last year’s 2022 federal election recorded an 89.82 per cent voter turnout, which was the lowest turnout since compulsory voting was introduced ahead of the 1925 federal election.

The 1999 Republic referendum registered a 95.1 per cent turnout, which was three per cent higher than turnouts for the 1988 and 1977 referendums.

With many voters not engaged and focused on cost-of-living pressures, the Yes camp believes voter turnout could fall below 85 per cent. Combined with an expected final week swing, Yes campaigners were hopeful of a closer result but still believed they would ultimately fall short.

No campaigners on Friday were urging supporters to get out and vote to ensure that turnout doesn’t plunge as low as 80 per cent.

While internal and public polling suggests the No campaign will win both a majority of states and the national vote, Fair Australia strategists remain focused on their original aim of claiming victory in three states.

The No campaign is confident of winning Queensland and Western Australia. Tasmania has been difficult for both the Yes23 and No campaigns to gauge who will ultimately win the state. South Australia is expected to edge No despite a last-ditch, multimillion-dollar ad blitz by Yes23.

Entering the final week of campaigning, which has been dominated by the Israel-Hamas war, Yes campaigners believed around 25 per cent of Australians remained uncommitted on how they would vote.

A Yes23 source said if voter turnout was in the low 80s, it could impact the final result but conceded it was hard to know how the no-shows would fall in terms of support. Impacts of voter turnout will become clear on Saturday.

Despite the media blackout that came into effect on Thursday, Yes23 and No campaigns are blanketing digital platforms and print with ads and final messages that are not captured by the election advertising ban.

Yes23 campaign director Dean Parkin on Friday said there was absolutely still a pathway to victory, estimating nearly three million of the 11.6 million Australians who have not yet cast their vote remained undecided.

Mr Parkin said the organisation had amassed 60,000 volunteers who would be fighting “every minute between now and when the polls close” at 6pm. Previously Yes23 had predicted it would sign up 50,000 volunteers.

“There is absolutely a pathway to victory. We’re very encouraged by what we’re seeing out on the ground, what we’re hearing from our volunteers that are out there … in those early voter centres,” Mr Parkin said alongside Yes campaigners at Parliament House.

“We reckon there’s about 25 per cent, about a quarter of the … remaining people that are yet to vote are out there to be won. So that’s a big chunk of the Australian population. We believe Australians are very open to this.

“We haven’t been at a referendum for 24 years in this country and there’s been (a) tremendous amount of speculation about what’s going to happen tomorrow. And, of course, the pollsters have had their say. Well, the most important thing tomorrow is that the Australian people get to have their say.”

Mr Parkin accused the No campaign of going “very quiet this week” and taking voters for granted.

“They seem to have put the cue in the rack. They think that they’ve got this won,” he said.

“They are taking Australian voters for granted, the Yes campaign absolutely is not.”