Newspoll: Budget popular but lacking the bounce of 2019

More people believe they will be financially better off than not following the federal budget but voters are less confident it will be good for the economy.

Josh Frydenberg’s pre-election budget was positively received but fell short of repeating the 2019 ‘bounce’. Picture: Brendan Beckett

More people believe they will be financially better off than not ­following last week’s cost-of-­living budget but voters are less confident that it will be good for the economy.

An exclusive Newspoll conducted for The Australian shows Josh Frydenberg’s pre-election budget, which sought to strike a balance between restoring the balance sheet while addressing cost-of-living pressures, was positively received. But it fell short of repeating the budget “bounce” that helped catapult the Coalition to victory in the May 2019 election with popular and broadscale income tax cuts.

Last week’s budget, which ­delivered $420 cost-of-living payments to 11 million wage earners and cut fuel excise in half for six months, was most popular among 35 to 49-year-olds with 31 per cent saying they would be better off compared to 27 per cent saying they would be worse off.

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But it was those aged over 50 who most believed that it would be good for the economy, with 41 per cent agreeing it was a sound economic plan.

The Coalition was still favoured as a better economic manager but only marginally.

A total of 40 per cent of voters said they thought Labor would deliver a better budget, compared to 42 per cent believing they wouldn’t.

This was the strongest support for Labor in opposition on this measure since budget questions were first asked in a Newspoll in 1999. The only higher score for an opposition was in 2013, when 41 per cent of voters believed the Coalition would have delivered a better budget than the then Rudd government.

Overall support for the budget was on the positive side of the ledger, with 26 per cent of all voters saying they would be financially better off compared to 25 per cent saying they would be worse off.

This was higher than last year’s budget, and on par with the October 2020 pandemic crisis budget. But it failed to repeat the applause for the 2019 budget, when 34 per cent of voters said they would be better off with large income tax cuts, and 19 per cent saying they would be worse off.

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However, there was less confidence among voters that Mr Frydenberg’s fourth budget would be good for the economy, with 33 per cent saying it would be good compared to 23 per cent saying it would be bad.

This was the lowest level of support on this question of any budget since 1999. The 2019 budget was among the most well received budgets since the final Coalition budget delivered by Peter Costello in 2007.

Last year’s pandemic budget was considered to be among the most economically responsible for 15 years with 44 per cent saying it would be good for the economy and only 15 per cent saying it wouldn’t.

The budget verdict comes as popular support for Labor fell.

Labor’s primary vote has dropped three points to 38 per cent ahead of the official start to the election campaign, which is expected within days.

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With the Coalition improving a point to 36 per cent, it has narrowed the contest from a six-point margin three weeks ago to a two point difference as the election date nears. Once preferences are allocated, however, the two-party preferred gap remains strongly in Labor’s favour – 54/46 per cent – with the gap tightening a point towards the Coalition in the latest poll.

This is a national swing of 5.5 per cent on the last election, and if applied in a uniform distribution across all seats would represent the loss of 17 seats for the Coalition and a landslide victory for Labor.

The Newspoll of 1531 voters was conducted between Thursday and Sunday with online surveys throughout Australia.