Newspoll analysis: ‘Miracle victory’ voters desert Scott Morrison

Voters in key demographics that helped Scott Morrison win the last election have deserted the Coalition in recent months.

Scott Morrison in Melbourne on Thursday. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Andrew Henshaw

Voters in the key demographics that helped Scott Morrison win the last election have deserted the Coalition over the past three months, with sharp falls in support among working families, in a sign that cost-of-living pressures will define the political contest as the government puts the finishing touches to next week’s budget.

An exclusive demographic analysis of Newspoll results since the beginning of the year shows the key groups that the Coalition relied on for its surprise election win in 2019 have swung strongly against both the government and the Prime Minister personally.

They are those who are now likely to be feeling the cost-of-­living pressures and financial ­security concerns the most.

While support for the Coalition has fallen across the board, the ­Coalition has suffered a seven-point fall among 35 to 49-year-olds, with only 29 per cent now claiming to support the Liberal/Nationals. Labor now has a clear lead in this critical demographic with a five-point lift in support to 44 per cent.

Another key demographic to have swung strongly in Labor’s favour, which has a crossover with this age cohort, is voters with ­annual household incomes of more than $150k.

This is a demographic that the Coalition has consistently dominated in Newspoll surveys and would be considered vital to the Liberal/Nationals chances of winning an election.

The analysis shows a dramatic 12-point fall among these voters since the last analysis was conducted in December 2021, dropping from 45 per cent to 33 per cent.

For the first time, Labor now leads the Coalition in this demographic with a one-point rise to 36 per cent.

It is among these demographics that Mr Morrison has also suffered the worst swings against him ­personally.

 

In December, Mr Morrison led as preferred prime minister among 35-49 year olds by a 10-point margin over Anthony Albanese – by 45 per cent to 35 per cent.

The latest analysis shows a marked shift in mood with Mr Albanese now leading as the preferred prime minister by 41 per cent to 39 per cent.

Voters identifying as having household incomes above $150k – which includes dual-income households with modest incomes as well as the wealthy – now say that they prefer Mr Albanese as prime minister.

Mr Morrison has suffered a nine-point fall to 43 per cent, while Mr Albanese has increased his support by 11 points to 44 per cent.

Labor has also made significant gains among voters without a tertiary education or trade qualification. Three months ago, Labor was only marginally ahead – 38 per cent to 36 per cent. This has now blown out to a 44 to 34 per cent lead for the opposition.

The only demographics in which the Coalition now leads Labor is the over-65 age group and Christian voters.

The results suggest that next week’s budget, to be handed down by Josh Frydenberg on Tuesday, has become central to the Coalition’s campaign for re-election with cost-of-living relief becoming a polarising issue for voters.

On a state-by-state basis, the Coalition remains dominant in Queensland, its strongest state, with a primary vote of 40 per cent, which is unchanged from the last analysis. Labor has improved its average by just a point from 31 per cent to 32 per cent.

The Coalition has also clawed back ground in Western Australia, where Labor has suffered a strong fall in support federally with a four-point drop in its primary vote to 40 per cent.

The Coalition remains unchanged at 36 per cent.

But the Liberals face collapse in South Australia, where their primary vote has fallen from 38 to 31 per cent. Labor’s primary vote is up five points to 42 per cent.

This follows the defeat of the Marshall Liberal government at last week’s state election after only one term.

The government has also suffered falls in Victoria and NSW.

In Victoria, the Coalition fell on average two points to 33 per cent while Labor improved its position to 42 per cent, its highest result since before the last election,

In NSW, where the Coalition aims to pick up seats but is being hampered by brand damage inflicted by the Perrottet government, Labor rose three points to 41 per cent while the Coalition fell a point to 36 per cent.

Mr Morrison now trails Mr ­Albanese as preferred PM in all states except Queensland.

The results also show that ­despite popular belief that he had a problem with female voters, there was no discernible gender gap when it came to male and female levels of support for the Coalition.

There was, however, a substantial gender gap when it came to Labor voters, with 20 per cent of female voters having not yet made up their mind about the Opposition Leader.