The aspirational class that feared Bill Shorten and backed Scott Morrison at the last election now prefers Anthony Albanese as prime minister.
This is the parallel universe that punctuates the political landscape.
The Labor leader is the preferred prime minister among the 35 to 49-year-olds and voters who identify as having household incomes of more than $150k.
This is a first, and a deeply troubling omen for the Coalition, if for no other reason than Albanese is a blank canvass whose vision for a post-pandemic Australia is equally opaque.
If Morrison can’t win back the aspirationals, it’s hard to see how he can win the election.
He is behind in almost all demographics – across income brackets, age groups and education level.
The only groups in which Morrison leads is retirees, Christians and Queenslanders.
The most notable shift in the quarterly analysis of Newspoll data over the past three months is among the two key demographics that rejected Labor in 2019 – which largely covers Generation X and families or individuals of modest to high incomes.
They are largely people with kids, presumably those who had their holidays cancelled at Christmas, couldn’t find a RAT when told to and were forced to send their kids back to school unvaccinated.
They are those who are feeling the pinch the most at the bowser and the supermarket checkout.
It’s not that the Coalition is behind in some demographics, it’s that it is way behind.
At a state-by-state level, what will also be concerning are the numbers in NSW, a state that held the only real promise of gains for the Coalition.
On a two-party-preferred basis, NSW is now down 5.7 per cent on the last election.
Brand damage inflicted by the Liberal state government hasn’t helped.
In the end, the election may come down to hand-to-hand combat across targeted seats, which means the Coalition is still a chance of victory.
But if this Newspoll analysis shows anything, it’s that Josh Frydenberg’s budget on Tuesday has become more critical in trying to win back the voters who won it for them last time.
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