Election 2022: ALP strategists lack leader’s optimism

Labor MPs and strategists are increasingly pessimistic about their federal election chances in Queensland amid waning hopes of picking up coalmining seats.

Anthony Albanese in Zillmere, in Brisbane’s north. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Dan Peled

Labor MPs and strategists are ­increasingly pessimistic about their federal election chances in Queensland amid waning hopes of picking up coalmining seats, ­despite the party’s climate change pivot.

After Anthony Albanese on Monday said Labor was well ­positioned to win or challenge in 10 Queensland electorates, The Australian understands party strategists believe a best-case scenario is claiming back just one or two.

With the Coalition boasting ­inflated margins after Labor’s dis­astrous 2019 election campaign, predicted swings across the state were unlikely to trigger a repeat of Kevin Rudd’s 2007 success in Queensland.

The top hopes for Labor in Queensland are the Caboolture-based seat of Longman and the inner-city seat of Brisbane, with an outside chance in the Cairns-based electorate of Leichhardt.  As the Coalition and Labor ramped up operations at their Brisbane and Sydney election headquarters, the Opposition Leader said he was “very hopeful of winning a whole range of seats” in regional Queensland.

“Seats like Leichhardt, Herbert, Flynn and Capricornia, but also very hopeful here in Brisbane. In Brisbane’s north, of course, we have Longman, Petrie and Dickson, but there’s also seats like Forde and Bowman that I believe are in play,” he said.

Asked about Labor’s prospects in Queensland at a press conference with Premier Annastacia Palas­zczuk later, he said he would “leave that to the commentators”.

“We need to do better in Queensland. I’ll be visiting lots of places during the campaign. I’m here at a distribution centre, I’ve visited a coalmine or visited lots of other resources sectors, and I’ll be out and about each and every day campaigning and I’ll spend substantial time in Queensland,” Mr Albanese said.

“The feedback I have from Queenslanders is that they’re up for a change.”

Labor’s hopes in the Gladstone-based seat of Flynn, held by the retiring Nationals MP Ken O’Dowd on a margin of 8.7 per cent, have dimmed in recent weeks.

Despite scaling back Bill Shorten’s climate change agenda through its Powering Australia policy, and promising to cut emissions by 43 per cent by 2030 and slash power bills by $275, scepticism on the ground remains.

LNP candidate and former Queensland MP Colin Boyce, and high-profile Labor candidate, Gladstone mayor Matt Burnett, have strong followings in Flynn.

Veteran Liberal MP Warren Entsch is expected to face a tight race with Labor candidate Elida Faith in Leichhardt, with both sides throwing resources into the Cairns electorate held by the LNP on a 4.2 per cent margin.

Labor is hoping Greens preferences will help narrow the gap.

Longman and Brisbane have emerged as the top two targets for Labor, with Scott Morrison and Mr Albanese expected to make multiple trips to the electorates during the campaign.

Ahead of calling the election later this week for either May 14 or May 21, the Prime Minister said Mr Albanese “has been skating away without a lot of scrutiny”.

In the marginal Melbourne seat of Chisholm on Monday, Mr Morrison outlined the Coalition’s economic and health management record during the pandemic.

“We have had to face an economic crisis 30 times worse than the global financial crisis that the Labor Party had to face, and we’ve got employment outcomes that are 50 per cent better,” he said.

“This election, there’ll be plenty of opportunity for scrutiny, and I encourage people to look carefully at these things. Elections are serious things … it’s not a reality show, it’s not based on who they like or don’t like.”