Newspoll: Labor marked down as election looms

Support for Labor has fallen in the wake of the federal budget and a contest over economic management, according to Newspoll.

Scott Morrison visits tradies in northern Tasmanian seat of Braddon on Sunday. Picture: Adam Taylor

Popular support for Labor has fallen in the wake of last week’s federal budget and a political contest over economic management, with the Coalition closing the gap as Scott Morrison prepares to call the election within days.

An exclusive Newspoll conducted for The Australian ahead of a likely May 14 election, shows Labor’s primary vote falling three points to 38 per cent.

With the Coalition improving a point to 36 per cent, it has narrowed the contest from a six-point margin three weeks ago to a two-point difference as the election date nears.

The loss of support for Labor appears to have gone mostly to the Greens, which picked up two points to 10 per cent, consistent with their 2019 election result.

Once preferences are allocated, however, the two-party preferred gap remains strongly in Labor’s favour – 54-46 per cent – with the gap tightening a point toward the Coalition.

This is a national swing of 5.5 per cent on the last election and if applied in a uniform distribution across all seats would represent the loss of 17 seats for the Coalition and a landslide victory for Labor.

Support for Pauline Hanson’s One Nation and Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party remained unchanged with each on 3 per cent of the vote.

Support for other minor parties, including independents was also unchanged on 10 per cent.

The Coalition primary vote of 36 per cent is the best result for the Liberal and Nationals parties since December – having dropped to as low as 34 per cent – but remains well down on where they would need to be to win an election.

Similarly, support for Labor is back to where it was at the end of last year.

Anthony Albanese has dipped back into negative territory with a one-point fall to 43 per cent in his satisfaction ratings. Picture: Steve Pohlner

The Newspoll was conducted following the handing down of the federal budget last week, which promised significant short-term cost-of-living remedies but was criticised by Labor as being an election cash splash.

The survey also covered ­Anthony Albanese’s budget in reply speech in which he promised more funding for aged care but was accused of lacking a detailed plan and subsequently failing to rule out new taxes under a Labor government.

Both leaders also faced internal party divisions over the past three weeks, with Mr Albanese criticised for not calling an inquiry into claims that Labor senator Kimberley Kitching had been bullied by female Labor frontbenchers before to her death.

Last week Mr Morrison became the target of a bitter reprisal from NSW Liberal senator Connie Fierrevante Wells who, after ­losing her preselection, accused Mr Morrison of bullying behaviour.

Despite the character attacks on both sides, approval levels for both leaders remained static.

Mr Morrison’s approval ratings lifted a point to 42 per cent while those dissatisfied fell a point to 54 per cent. This resulted in a net negative approval rating of minus 12 – an improvement of four points since his two-year low of minus 19 in late January.

Mr Albanese also dipped back into negative territory with a one-point fall to 43 per cent in his satisfaction ratings and a two-point increase to 44 per cent in thosedissatisfied with his performance as leader.

There were still 13 per cent of voters who had yet to make up their mind about the Opposition Leader, with an election due within the next eight weeks.

The head-to-head contest remained line-ball, with Mr Morrison improving a point to 43 per cent as the preferred prime minister. Mr Albanese was unchanged on 42 per cent.

The Newspoll of 1531 voters was conducted between Thursday and Sunday with online surveys throughout Australia.

The primary vote numbers were rounded while the two party preferred vote was calculated on the underlying primary vote numbers.