Labor quells Muslim community anger but political mobilisation set to stay

A pro-Palestine political wave that had threatened to topple Labor in inner-city seats failed to materialise, with two ministers romping home.

Tony Burke, left, and Anthony Albanese at Saturday night’s Labor election function. Picture: Jason Edwards

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A pro-Palestine political wave that had threatened to topple Labor in inner-city seats failed to materialise, with two ministers romping home.

Muslim voters did punish Labor for its stance on the Israel-Hamas war on first-preference votes but this was of little consequence as those preferences ­likely flowed back to the ALP nonetheless.

The Muslim Vote and Muslim Vote Matters groups had sought to harness and mobilise discontent to flip Labor strongholds.

In Sydney, ministers Tony Burke and Jason Clare were most at risk amid high-profile independent campaigns in Watson and Blaxland respectively.

Independent candidates Ziad Basyouny and Ahmed Ouf registered significant first-preference totals in Watson and Blaxland ­respectively – the former 15.5 per cent and the latter with 20.6 per cent – but Labor enjoyed swings toward it on a two-party-­preferred basis, with Mr Burke and Mr Clare increasing their margins.

The Australian’s recalculation of census data showed that in the 13 seats with the highest share of Muslim voters there was an average 0.7-percentage-point primary vote swing away from Labor, which was 2.8 percentage points lower than the national ­average.

The Greens received a minor boost in those seats, seeing a 2.7-percentage-point primary swing in the party’s favour compared to the national average.

In the three seats with the highest share of Muslim voters – Watson (31 per cent), Blaxland (31 per cent), and Calwell (24 per cent) – the primary vote swing against Labor was 4.9, 5.1 and 13.3 percentage points respectively.

Sheik Wesam Charkawi, The Muslim Vote convener, on Saturday in Greenacre. Picture: Alexi Demetriadi

Watson independent candidate Ziad Basyouny. Picture: Amaani Siddeek

Labor strategists had been confident of retaining Watson and Blaxland, and this belief was hardened with the release of how-to-vote cards, which heavily ­directed preferences toward Mr Burke and Mr Clare.

Lebanese Muslim community leader Jamal Rifi came out in mid-2024 in support of the ministers, establishing a “Friends of Burke/Clare” political network that campaigned on their behalf and sought to convince fellow Muslim voters that a “seat at the table” would amplify the community’s voice.

But speaking to The Australian on Saturday, Sheik Wesam Charkawi – The Muslim Vote convener and respected faith leader – said the eventual result would be irrelevant and that the community itself had “won” as the campaign would endure and expand.

“(It’s won) because of political awareness like never before, ­engagement and a pressing need for change,” he said. “The community should be proud, because they are the ones that sought the change, and this is their voice (being heard) at this election.”

An announcement is expected within days on that campaign’s plans, with an expectation it could announce it will run candidates in the 2027 NSW election.

Muslim Vote-backed Samim Moslih polled sixth in Calwell, with Labor’s Bassem Abdo – who is of Palestinian descent – in a fight to retain the seat for the ALP amid a tight race with independent Carly Moore.