A calamity for the Coalition and a stunning win for Anthony Albanese

Anthony Albanese in the Sydney suburb of Five Dock with fiancee Jodie Haydon and Labor candidate for Reid Sally Sitou. Picture: Jason Edwards / NewsWire

The significance of Anthony Albanese’s victory is as stunning as it is for the loss of Peter Dutton and potentially his own seat.

Yet three months ago it was an unlikely outcome.

The Prime Minister has defied his government’s own record of failures and the majority-held view of the electorate that Labor did not deserve to be re-elected because of it.

Yet this is what has occurred. For the Coalition this result is a calamity. The Liberals and Nationals now face their own existential questions.

The Coalition failed in the seats that Labor rightly feared would fall. It failed in seats it should have kept. It is redeemed only by the few surprise seats that it flipped.

But it misread the social dynamic, misread the mood and misread the polls.

Three key factors underscore what has occurred. The nation has confirmed that it remains in a post-Covid cycle of government dependency. Labor exploited this to maximum effect.

An unwritten agreement continues to exist that while people understand things are bad, as long as their bank accounts keep being topped up, they won’t disturb the equation.

This was as much a victory for an addiction to government intervention over aspiration as it was a striking result for the Labor Party campaign machine.

Dutton’s defeat represents a complete collapse of the Coalition’s political operation.

The turbulence of Trump, the global uncertainty have played to incumbency. This is a complete reversal of the global dynamics that western governments faced 12 months ago.

Dutton failed to pivot to this shift.

Finally, Labor’s aggressive campaign against Dutton was met with ineffective resistance.

Just as Labor positioned Scott Morrison at the last election and won the contest, Labor effectively positioned Dutton as well with an absence of response.

At 8pm on Saturday night, it was clear the Coalition was not in a position to win. This would be among the earliest calls on a federal election.

This represents the scale of the debacle.

As The Australian accurately forecast, the combined primary vote of the major parties is now at a record low. Labor retains government courtesy of the preferences it relies on from the Greens.

For Labor this model has been evident for decades. The Greens as kingmakers of mediocrity.

The Coalition has failed to reconcile the fracturing of its own moderate base

In trying to appeal to everyone it is appealing to fewer. This election result only confirms this.