Election 2025: Preferences mountain to climb for Muslim Vote in Sydney

Muslim Vote-backed independents have a mountain to climb in toppling two Labor ministers following the release of how-to-vote cards.

Tony Burke and Jason Clare at Parliament House in Canberra. Picture: Martin Ollman/NewsWire

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Muslim Vote-backed independents have a mountain to climb in toppling two Labor ministers following the release of how-to-vote cards, with them most likely having to rely on a groundswell of support to win on first preferences alone.

Although debate shifted from the Israel-Hamas war and its domestic ramifications in the weeks before ­Anthony Albanese called the May 3 election, political battles have continued in inner-city electorates with the conflict at its core. In Melbourne, the Greens hope to snare Labor-held Wills and Macnamara with Palestine-heavy campaigns, and an independent backed by the two main “Muslim vote” movements is running against Labor in Calwell.

But it has been Labor’s southwest Sydney heartlands that have been the centre of the conflict-induced political tussle and where two independents – Ziad Basyouny in Watson and Ahmed Ouf in Blaxland – ­appeared most likely to break through. However, the release on Wednesday of how-to-vote cards in those two electorates – held by Home Affairs Minister Tony Burke and Education Minister Jason Clare respectively – has given the independents a mountain to climb.

The Liberals in both seats have put Labor above both Dr Basyouny and Mr Ouf, who in turn have placed the ALP ministers above the Coalition – leaving only a groundswell of support on first preferences as the independents’ likely route.

How-to-vote cards are not binding or enforced, and are given out by candidates to supporters with the order of preferences most desirable to that party or person. It’s unclear what percentage of people adhere to them and voters could ignore them, but unlikely enough to pave a path for the independents to win on preferences.

Dr Basyouny has put Labor sixth and Liberal Zakir Alam seventh, with the Greens second, but also the Libertarians third and Clive Palmer’s Trumpet of Patriots fourth.

Mr Burke has put the Greens second and Dr Basyouny fourth, with the Liberals sixth.

Reports indicated that the candidates and The Muslim Vote – the political movement backing and resourcing the candidates – would seek a preference deal with the Liberals for one to be able to leap frog Labor, despite Peter Dutton last year vowing to place Dr Basyouny last given a Facebook post in the days after October 7 depicting Hamas paramilitants.

The Liberals, however, have made good on the Opposition Leader’s vow, placing Dr Basyouny ninth and last, with Mr Burke sixth on its how to vote card.

Independent candidate for Watson Ziad Basyouny. Picture: Jane Dempster

Independent candidate for Blaxland Ahmed Ouf. Picture: Tim Hunter

It’s a similar situation in Blaxland, with the Liberals placing Mr Clare above Mr Ouf, who is placed last on the party’s card, and with the independent putting the education minister third, ahead of the Coalition at sixth.

Watson and Blaxland are both held with about a 15 per cent margin and where Muslim voters make up 27 per cent and 35 per cent respectively in the two seats.

Although a route for the independent pair remains – a huge and albeit unlikely first preference vote and victory, or an unprecedented disregard for how to vote cards – the preference deals make that path much harder.

There are also splits within the area’s Muslim community as to the best political option, particularly on the issue of Palestine, with deep divergence between support for an independent – given anger with Labor’s handling of the conflict – or backing the ministers, who could be returned to government and closer to the levers of power.

Lebanese Muslim community leader Jamal Rifi, who has spearheaded a Friends of Burke/Clare campaign to help re-elect the ministers, criticised the independents for preferencing the Libertarians and Mr Palmer’s Trumpet of Patriots above Labor, calling those two parties “anti-migrant”.

“They (Dr Basyouny and Mr Ouf) shouldn’t have put the Libertarians or Palmer above Labor, it shows that they are detached from the community (and its views),” he said.

“And they’ve rewarded the Greens and punished Labor, who have done a lot of work – are we as a community going to reward cheap talk over hard work?”

It comes as Australia’s peak Muslim body urged the community to ensure they voted on May 3, saying it aligned with Islam’s “moral and communal duty”.

“For Muslims, this responsibility also aligns with our moral and communal duty to uphold justice, support truth, and offer sincere counsel to those in positions of political representation and authority,” the Australian National Imams Council’s statement said, co-signed by the Alliance of Australians for Muslims.