Domestic student numbers on the rise again, projections show

Year-to-date numbers for 2025 show commencements are up another 3 per cent compared to the same time in 2024, the Federal Department of Education says.

Federal Education Minister Jason Clare. Picture: NewsWire / Nikki Short

The number of Australian students starting a university degree appears to be on the rise again, the federal Department of Education’s 2025 projections indicate.

Preliminary data shows that 390,000 domestic students started a degree in 2024, an almost 4 per cent increase on 2023.

Year-to-May figures for 2025 show commencements are up another 3 per cent compared to the same time in 2024, which the Education department said suggested that “growth is continuing”. The forecast for 2025 indicates that more than 400,700 students will have started university during the year.

The number of domestic students starting an undergraduate or postgraduate degree had been steadily declining since 2017, excluding a spike during the height of the pandemic when students could not leave the country.

“When you take out the two Covid years, this year looks set to be the biggest year for Australians commencing an undergraduate or postgraduate university degree on record,” the Education department said, based on an analysis of its own data.

More than 20,000 new nursing students started degrees – or a 3 per cent increase – and more than 25,000 new teaching students began degrees – a 9 per cent increase, the preliminary 2024 figures show.

It is a welcome result for the Albanese government, given it committed to a national target of 80 per cent of the workforce having a TAFE or university qualification by 2050, in response to the Australian Universities Accord. It is not entirely clear what role individual universities will play in that target.

“To hit that target, we need to break down that invisible barrier that stops a lot of Australians from disadvantaged backgrounds, from the regions and the outer suburbs from getting a crack at uni and succeeding when they get there,” said Education Minister Jason Clare.

“That requires reform across the entire education system. That’s what the fully funding of our public schools is about. It’s also what the new funding system for our universities, that will roll out next year, is about.

“That will deliver demand-driven funding for equity students and needs-based funding, ensuring students get the academic and wraparound supports they need to succeed at university.”

Mr Clare said “that means more people finishing schools and more people going to TAFE or uni, or both.”

The government also said that more than 14,000 students had taken up Fee-Free Uni Ready Courses – short courses that prepare students for university studies – in 2025.

Following the federal election, Mr Clare said the education of Australians should be a university’s No.1 priority, amid repeated concerns that institutions were relying too heavily on international student revenue. The government is currently managing international student numbers with quasi-caps for each university.

While more domestic students appear to have been starting study in 2024 and 2025, it won’t be clear for a while about the completion rate of degrees.

An Institute of Public Affairs analysis from late last year found that 25 per cent of domestic students who started a bachelors degree in 2017 had dropped out by 2022. Only 62 per cent had graduated within six years, while 13 per cent were still studying.

Barely half the domestic students who started a teaching degree in 2017 had graduated by 2022 – down from 70.3 per cent of those enrolled between 2005 and 2010.

Overseas students – who pay full tuition fees and cannot access student loans through HECS/HELP – were more likely to finish their degrees.

Over six years, 19 per cent dropped out of their studies, 79 per cent graduated and 2 per cent were still enrolled.