Albanese at record low approval ratings as No vote overtakes Yes for first time on voice: Newspoll

Referendum to enshrine Indigenous voice would fail if a vote were held next weekend with a majority of states now lined up against it, according to Newspoll.

Anthony Albanese has encouraged Australians to ‘have a look at the wording that’s put forward’. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Martin Ollman

The referendum to enshrine an Indigenous voice to parliament and executive government would fail if a vote were held next weekend, with more voters for the first time opposed to altering the ­Constitution to achieve it and a majority of states lined up to ­deliver a “No” vote.

The new blow to the “Yes” campaign comes amid fresh warnings from Anthony Albanese, whose personal approval ratings have also fallen to the lowest level since the election, that a failed referendum would set back the cause of reconciliation.

An exclusive Newspoll conducted for The Australian shows the referendum on a path to possible defeat, with the “Yes” campaign falling short of achieving the ­double majority test of more than 50 per cent of the national vote and majorities in a majority of states.

The special Newspoll of 2303 voters conducted between June 16 and June 24, coinciding with the referendum bill’s passage through parliament and an intensifying political debate over the remit of the voice, shows the “Yes” vote falling three points to a new low of just 43 per cent.

The “No” vote rose four points to 47 per cent, confirming for the first time that more people are ­opposed to the Albanese government’s referendum model than those who support it.

Just as critical was the shift in the second key test for a referendum to succeed – a majority in a majority of states – with four of the six states now indicating a “No” vote and just two delivering “Yes” vote majorities.

Queensland, Western Australia, South Australia and Tasmania are now poised to vote “No” with only Victoria and NSW likely to deliver majorities for the “Yes” case, according to an aggregated Newspoll of 3852 voters conducted between May 31 and June 24.

The rise in the “No” vote came from Labor voters as well as ­Coalition voters, with Greens supporters alone hardening their views in favour of the voice. But the sharpest fall in support came from 35 to 49-year-old voters, with a seven-point fall among those who support it – from 53 per cent to 44 per cent.

Equally, men have hardened their opposition, with the “Yes” vote sliding from 45 per cent a month ago to just 38 per cent in the latest survey.

The only demographic where the “Yes” vote is above 50 per cent is among those aged between 18 to 34 and university graduates. Women are more likely to vote “Yes” but those supportive still ­remain below 50 per cent.

The state-by-state breakdown shows Victoria remains the strongest state for the “Yes” case, with 48 per cent in favour and 41 per cent opposed, followed by NSW with a 46-41 per cent split in support of the voice but with 13 per cent still undecided – the highest of all states.

Queensland produced the strongest “No” vote with 54 per cent against and 40 per cent in favour. WA also had a majority in the “No” camp – 52 per cent against compared to 39 per cent in support. In Tasmania the “No” vote was 48 per cent compared to 43 per cent for the “Yes” camp and in SA it was almost evenly split, with 46 per cent against and 45 per cent in favour.

Voters were asked the question that will be put to them at the referendum: “Australians will decide at a referendum whether to alter the Australian Constitution to recognise the First Peoples of Australia by establishing an Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice. Do you ­approve this proposed alteration?”

The fall in support for the voice comes as Mr Albanese’s personal approval ratings fell to their lowest levels since the election amid a small lift in support for the ­Coalition. Following a fortnight of parliamentary debate focused on the voice and the controversy over the politicisation of sexual assault allegations, satisfaction with Mr Albanese’s performance fell three points to 52 per cent, while those dissatisfied with him rose five points to 42 per cent. This is the worst result for the prime minister since the election.

There was also a tightening of the contest between the two leaders, with the gap narrowing to its tightest margin between Mr Albanese and Peter Dutton on the question of who would make the better prime minister.

Popular support for Labor, however, remained unchanged at 38 per cent. The Coalition’s primary vote rose a point to 35 per cent. This resulted in a slight improvement for the Liberal/Nationals in the two-party-preferred contest, with Labor’s lead cut two points to 54/46 per cent.

The Greens’ primary vote fell a point to 11 per cent while Pauline Hanson’s One Nation remained steady at 6 per cent, as did the 10 per cent vote for other minor parties and independents.

The Prime Minister remained hopeful at the weekend that the numbers would turn around ahead of the voice referendum due to be held between October and December.

Mr Albanese dismissed polling up to this point, arguing that the “Yes” vote until now had exceeded the “No” vote in almost every poll. The latest Newspoll is the first to see the numbers swing the other way.

Peter Dutton has called on Mr Albanese to call off the referendum if it looks likely to fail. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Martin Ollman

“Australians will make up their own mind. And I encourage Australians to have a look at the wording that’s put forward, to talk with First Nations people as well,” Mr Albanese said.

“This is a very simple proposition, it’s to recognise Indigenous Australians in our Constitution, in our founding document, and it’s time that we did that. And I believe most Australians will accept that.

“It’s not a complex proposition, it doesn’t change any of the way that we are governed, it just provides for the opportunity for Indigenous people to have a say in matters that affect them.

“And I think that when Australians look at what the actual words are that are being put forward, like when they look at the Uluru Statement from the Heart, they’ll see this for the generous and gracious offer that it is to advance reconciliation.”

The Opposition Leader has called on Mr Albanese to call off the referendum if it looks likely to fail.

“I think the uncertainty and the danger that the Prime Minister is setting our country up for and the division that he’s creating is quite remarkable,” Mr Dutton said last week.