Newspoll deals Prime Minister Anthony Albanese political blow over Indigenous voice to parliament

The Prime Minister is personally and politically invested on this issue in the minds of voters. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Martin Ollman

Anthony Albanese is now beginning to burn through political capital.

His short-term fortunes are undoubtedly tied to the Indigenous voice to parliament referendum’s success or failure.

And perhaps the Prime Minister’s long-term fortunes as well, depending on the outcome.

The latest Newspoll numbers are unquestionably bad for the voice. Likely worse than expected.

It is the first time the No vote has exceeded the Yes vote. And with only two of the six states showing any sign of a majority, the downward trajectory is continuing.

The only demographics where the Yes vote has managed to stay above 50 per cent is among the youngest voters and university graduates. While also still ahead among women and city folk, it is no longer above 50 per cent.

The largest decline was among 35-49 year olds, a demographic more likely to be feeling the cost-of-living pressures more acutely than others with families to feed and house.

While the Yes vote for these voters is still ahead of the No vote – only just – the swing to the No vote has been most profound within this group.

Whereas a month ago there were clear divisions between the over 50s and younger voters, it is among those in the middle that serious reservations are now starting to appear.

This is a dangerous development for the Yes campaign.

And it is perhaps the starkest reflection of the broader political problem facing the government in securing support for the voice at a time when other issues are occupying the minds of many voters.

It will only intensify Opposition Leader Peter Dutton’s calls for Albanese to park the referendum should it appear likely to fail.

But it’s not over yet for the voice. Only the foolhardy would make a call on an election result four months out from polling day.

The government has maintained that it was always going to be the case that it would be won or lost on the strength of the Yes campaign, which is yet to really begin.

But what is now also clear though is that the Prime Minister is personally and politically invested on this issue in the minds of voters.

The fall in approval ratings for the Prime Minister follows two of the messiest weeks the government has had to endure in parliament – dominated by two issues; the voice and the Coalition’s attempts to link Labor to the politicisation of the Brittany Higgins story.

Cost of living and the economy, despite ranking the highest of issues of concern to most people, was consigned to a third-order issue.

It is not surprising that Albanese’s personal numbers have taken a hit given how closely tied he is personally to the referendum debate and how much of parliament has been occupied with these issues.

With 52 per cent satisfied with him as leader and 42 per cent dissatisfied, this is the worst outcome since the election.

Historically speaking, his numbers remain solid but this is the first poll where more than four in 10 voters had a negative view of his performance.

For a leader who thrives on personal approval, the erosion will be of concern.

He certainly wouldn’t have expected Dutton to make ground on him in the preferred prime minister stakes.

What will be puzzling for the opposition is that none of this has yet been transferred to the government. Labor’s primary vote of 38 per cent is steady and proving resilient.

While the poll isn’t great for the voice, it’s no better for the Coalition. While the Liberals/Nationals primary vote lifted a point to 35 per cent, they remain hopelessly unable to shift the electoral dial any a meaningful way.

The question is at what point does the overlap with the voice, should it continue down this path, begin to eat into Labor’s support as well.