Indigenous voice to parliament referendum date likely to be October 14

Anthony Albanese is likely to announce the date for the voice referendum at the Garma festival in August. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Martin Ollman

Anthony Albanese has said enough for us to sensibly conclude the date for a referendum to enshrine an Indigenous voice to parliament will be announced in the first week of August, have about a 12-week campaign and be held on October 14.

On Tuesday, the Prime Minister repeated and refined the period it would take for a campaign and when the referendum vote would be held based on the constitutional requirements for such a poll.

Further defining his remarks on Monday when the referendum bill passed parliament that the vote would be in “the final quarter”, Albanese said on Tuesday: “It’ll be sometime between October and December.”

Recognising the electoral laws after Monday’s passage, he said: “It can’t be before two months and 33 days; there’s some technical things to do with the referendum.”

Given the poll has to be held on a Saturday, like a general election, that would make a vote possible from September 9 and include September 16 and September 23.

But given the October-December qualification and the extra declaration that the vote won’t “mess with the footy” and be held on the day of the AFL Grand final (September 30), the four possible Saturdays of September are ruled out.

Besides, Albanese will be travelling to at least Indonesia and India for the East Asia Summit and the G20 during that time.

At the other end of the year, all of the barely possible Saturdays in December – 2, 9 and 16 (there won’t be a poll the day before Christmas Eve or New Year’s Eve) – are out of the question because modern electioneering avoids a December poll and that would mean a campaign of more than four months.

November has similar problems as December with the length of the campaign and the PM’s travel commitments to the Pacific Island Forum in the Cook Islands and APEC in San Francisco around November 4 and 11 as well as yet-to-be scheduled trips to Washington DC and China.

Which leaves Saturdays in October, with October 21 and 28 falling during parliamentary sitting weeks and only the first two weeks – October 7 and 14 – falling in the spring break, giving them the top priority in October with the second Saturday in the month the obvious conclusion.

As for the date, you’d think Albanese will announce it at the Garma festival on August 4 or 5 because that is where he announced the wording of the referendum.

Best bets: the referendum date of October 14 will be announced in the first week of August to avoid colliding with football finals, overseas travel and parliamentary sittings.