Why Labor is primed for an early election
With the first Labor budget surplus locked in and next year’s almost a certainty – based on sustained commodity prices – by this time in 2024 I predict Chalmers will stand to announce “my second surplus, in my second year of being your Treasurer”.
Labor also has been buoyed by Peter Dutton’s predictable and lacklustre budget response. Not only did he back in nuclear reactors that can fit into suburban backyards, schools and local playgrounds, he once again backed the Morrison plan to raid superannuation for housing. Labor was so vulnerable after the Albanese announcement of a Hobart-based stadium. It might guarantee the Prime Minister grand final tickets for years to come, but it’s just not supported by Tasmanians.
Imagine if the Opposition Leader had promised in his budget reply to cancel the Albanese arena to build a new billion-dollar Launceston general hospital. Sure, AFL chief executive Gillon McLachlan would’ve been peeved, but that’s two seats in the north of the Apple Isle you’ve locked in for good.
But Labor’s re-election is being built on the back of Chalmers’ political nous and budgetary leadership. Newspoll clearly would have looked much better for the party if Australian voters thought their Prime Minister was as equally focused as their Treasurer.
Celebrity Albo has been, in the words of Danger Dan, “so busy” with his well-papped lifestyle of weddings, coronations and taking the VIP jet to catch a Billy Bragg concert in Brisvegas.
For Labor to lock in the early election, the party needs two more pieces for the puzzle.
First is a double-dissolution trigger. That will come when the Julie Collins housing-money-go-round is rejected in the Senate. The Housing Minister won’t actually deliver a single new affordable home by the time of the next election but will deliver Labor the trigger it needs.
The second hurdle to overcome is Albanese’s election night vanity project: the Albanese voice to executive government. The voice is well overdue and deserves to gain a much stronger Yes vote than current polling indicates. Albanese’s failure to secure bipartisan support for the voice is driving voter apprehension, as is the lack of detail he stubbornly refuses to provide.
It’s telling that the Yes 23 campaign ads, handsomely funded by corporate elites, don’t actually mention the voice. Instead they are entirely centred on constitutional recognition of First Nations people, an idea that has overwhelming bipartisan and community support.
The Albanese voice is designed as a political bomb. If the vote succeeds, Albanese will claim sole credit for its delivery. It will be used as a stick to beat the broken Liberals. If the unedifying spectacle of Moira Deeming’s expulsion from the Victorian partyroom is anything to go by, the Liberals will implode. A Yes to the Albanese voice is the last piece that has to fall into place. Labor will fuse the marriage equality voter data with Yes voter data and the electoral roll to build a new constituency of voters for a progressive Labor vote for years to come.
On cue, Labor national secretary Paul Erickson’s laser-like campaign focus will be deployed on a national scale. Aston would’ve been won at the general election last year if not for the Albanista’s small-target campaign strategy.
Chalmers’ two surpluses are locked in. Collins will deliver the double-dissolution trigger and Albanese his voice.
Even if the Albanese voice is lost, Labor’s logic is that it still will leave Dutton as a dead man walking. The great vengeance and furious anger of the soy latte set will be unleashed on the Liberal leader. The theory is that a Yes vote will render Dutton irrelevant. A No vote will paint him as a pariah.
The Albanese calculus is that he wins either way. He may very well be right as his Teflon polling numbers continue to reward a focus of legacy over leadership.
Labor has a back-up plan and you can plainly see it with the jostling for airtime among the Labor frontbench. The early election option works with or without Albanese at the helm. Chalmers is delivering the economic platform, Chris Bowen and Tanya Plibersek action on climate change, and Mark Butler fundamental reform to our healthcare system. Every one of them could step into the breach if required. The jury is still out on Richard Marles after his campaign performance and short stints as acting prime minister when Penny Wong was not available. He could be next in line or he just might be a Prince Harry – a useful spare.
The No vote could damage Albanese as much as it does Dutton. Indigenous leaders who have waited a lifetime to be heard only to have it cruelled by a white guy from the inner city may well vent their anger on a Labor leader who failed to provide the detail necessary to assure undecided voters.
There’s no doubt the smart heads in the Yes campaign have focus-group-tested ads, fronted by the Prime Minister saying “vote for the vibe”, up against the warm voice of a local elder asking us to join him in 60,000 years of history.
The foundations for Labor’s next election win are being laid. Surpluses, frontbench talent and an Opposition Leader fighting yesterday’s policy agenda will hold Labor in good stead.
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Labor is firmly on track for a general election as early as August next year. This would be before its first full term is due, but the preconditions for such a call are being methodically laid out by Jim Chalmers and Anthony Albanese.