Japanese election harms region

Japan, for decades, has been a pillar of pro-Western, democratic stability in our region. That could be in doubt after Sunday’s election, which saw the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, which has governed almost without a break since 1955, lose control of the upper house of the Diet, and a dramatic surge in support for the populist, xenophobic “Japan First” Sanseito party.

Similar forces of upheaval seen across the world have reached Japan, adding to the woes of the LDP coalition, which lost its majority in the Diet’s lower house last year and now confronts a crisis Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba appears unlikely to survive.

Half of the 248 seats in the upper house were up for election. The LDP and its smaller partner, Komeito, went in with 141 seats between them. Projections are that their combined representation could crumble to double figures. That would make it the first time the dominant party has lost its majority in both houses, making Mr Ishiba’s position even more difficult, even though the LDP may hold on to power by cobbling together another coalition.

The LDP and Komeito are likely to end up with 89 to 103 seats, and the main opposition, the Constitutional Democratic Party, between 34 and 40. But the headline winner was the anti-foreigner Sanseito party, which lifted its numbers from two to 23.

Beginning with Mr Ishiba’s commitment to increase Japan’s defence spending to 2 per cent of GDP from 1 per cent, an immense amount is at stake for Japan and the Indo-Pacific region after a devastating result for the LDP, with its long record in office as an indispensable ally for the US and Western nations, including Australia.

“Japan First” isolationism is on the march, just as the country’s role in helping deter China in the East and South China seas has never been as important, and Beijing’s expanding bluewater navy is venturing further into waters long dominated by the US and its allies.

The Wall Street Journal says anxiety among voters about punitive US tariffs of 25 per cent, starting on August 1, played a role in the poll outcome. It will be unfortunate, given the result, if Donald Trump continues to treat Japan as an adversary and not the indispensable Western ally that it is in the Indo-Pacific.