Morrison, through bitter experience, has understood that politics is a learning profession. All politicians make mistakes; the better ones learn from them. Morrison has heeded the errors he made about management and communication during the bushfires disaster and did not repeat them when faced with responding to a pandemic.
Many commentators wrote-off Morrison after the bushfires. His ill-timed family holiday to Hawaii was seized on as emblematic of a prime minister who was out of touch and not sufficiently focused on a national emergency. The images of rural firefighters and distraught residents not wanting to shake his hand personified the national mood.
But when faced with COVID-19, Morrison listened to expert advice, acted in a timely and decisive manner, worked cooperatively with others and found a tone befitting a national leader. The response has not been without errors of judgment and blunders, which is understandable given the scale of the challenge, but overall Morrison has performed well.
Morrison’s suburban daggy dad Christian footy-loving persona infuriates Labor. They think it is phony and confected, the product of “Scotty from marketing”. All politicians construct an image. Albanese is “DJ Albo”, the inner-city craft beer swilling Rabbitohs supporter who loves “fighting Tories”. The problem for Labor is that ScoMo’s persona resonates with many voters whereas Albo’s does not.
The upshot is that Morrison has stabilised his leadership and almost certainly will lead the government to the next election. The style and approach of his prime ministership is now evident. Morrison is a pragmatist, not an ideologue. He works closely with Josh Frydenberg and respects Nationals leader Michael McCormack. He is accessible and attentive to cabinet ministers and his partyroom. He is relentlessly focused and rarely sidetracked into tribal ideological battles.
Albanese has been utterly complacent this year. He has done next to nothing to refresh Labor’s frontbench, revitalise policies, reform the party or reconnect with lost voters. Labor faces an existential crisis yet Albanese carries on as if it is politics as usual. His speeches, interviews and parliamentary performances are often cringe-worthy. It is no wonder the polls remain diabolical, with Labor’s primary vote flatlining in the mid-30s. It is in the disastrous 20s in Western Australia and Queensland.
It is why the Right faction contributed chapters on policy and strategy to a new book, The Write Stuff (Connor Court), edited by Nick Dyrenfurth and Misha Zelinsky. This book is a damning indictment on Albanese’s leadership. Evidently, others in the party are doing the hard thinking.
This should have been Labor’s year of renewal. Instead Labor’s national conference, which could have been held online, was cancelled and the party continued to drift further into oblivion.
It is often remarked that Albanese has a difficult job given there has been a “rally around the flag” effect during the pandemic as voters instinctively look to governments and pay little attention to oppositions. This is nonsense. Joe Biden in the US and Keir Starmer in Britain have not had any trouble being heard. Biden defeated Donald Trump last month and Starmer leads Boris Johnson in the polls.
Nothing is granted in politics; everything must be earned. Morrison’s largely effective handling of the health and economic response to the pandemic is the reason voters judge him highly. Albanese grates with voters. He insists he is co-operative and supportive of the government’s approach but he has slammed it on almost everything from quarantine, the operation of the national cabinet and Australians abroad wanting to return home, to JobKeeper, JobSeeker and now the rollout of a vaccine. If Morrison was really so terrible he would not have a huge gap as preferred prime minister over Albanese.
Labor’s true believers are demoralised by Albanese’s lacklustre performance. He lacks gravitas and the essential leadership combination of intellect and imagination. Many Labor faithful think Morrison is lucky and unworthy, and they are infuriated that Albanese cannot land a glove on him. More importantly, there is no evidence Albanese is connecting with voters who have drifted to other parties in the outer suburbs and regions. Party and union polling confirm this.
Several Labor MPs believe there should be a change of leader. How, when and indeed if this happens will be dictated by events. There is no clear leadership alternative but there are several who think they can do a better job. Albanese has not been a good party manager, with bust-ups in shadow cabinet and dissent in caucus. His office is dysfunctional. He dislikes frank advice and often gets cranky. The view that he should be replaced is growing in party ranks.
While Morrison is the most popular prime minister since Kevin Rudd — a warning if there ever were one — he is far from perfect. Morrison often deflects rather than engages with prickly questioners. He sometimes overreaches with political attacks. Several ministers are accident prone or have been elevated beyond their competence. And he only reluctantly admits mistakes.
But Australian politics is largely a comparative contest and so, in a ScoMo v Albo match-up, there is little competition. Morrison has long felt that he has Albanese’s measure. The Prime Minister has the gift of a weak Opposition Leader. So, ever the clever politician, expect Morrison to go to an early election in the second half of next year. That is, unless Labor changes its leader.
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There has been an extraordinary change in fortunes for Scott Morrison and Anthony Albanese this year. The Prime Minister started 2020 in dire trouble over the bushfires but is now in a strong position, popular and respected. The Opposition Leader thought he was on a sure path to the prime ministership a year ago but now faces growing internal criticism and his leadership remains on deathwatch.