Beneath the Trump-Vance-Zelensky debacle in the Oval Office lie two realities – Donald Trump’s adolescent-like sensitivity to the slightest criticism and, more important, his profound contempt for historical norms and the strategic rationale that have long guided US global policy.
Trump is ahistorical. While all his predecessors since Harry Truman have seen US alliances as force multipliers that accentuate American influence and power, Trump brings a “dollars and cents” accounting to US dealings with the world, fixated on a transactional balance sheet that means a shrinking American impact.
He believes the EU was “formed to screw the United States”. He blames Ukraine for the war triggered by Russian aggression. He has no conception of a post-war world aspiring to uphold sovereign rights and democratic freedoms. Trump brings a reality-TV culture and real estate mentality to his rewriting of history and promotion of lies from the President’s office.
Ukraine is a template for Trump-Vance thinking about the world. They have a contempt for Volodymyr Zelensky as a democratic leader. They have no attachment to Ukraine as a sovereign democracy.
“They may be Russian some day, or they may not be Russian some day,” Trump said. He seemed not to care. He assumed no great principle at stake. But his preference for Vladimir Putin over Zelensky was undisguised.
Trump’s instincts are to flatter or bully. He flatters Putin and bullies Zelensky, his contemptible ultimatum to the Ukrainian leader being “make a deal or we are out”. A threat issued in public before the world. Trump’s subsequent decision to pause all military aid to Ukraine is predictable and defining – he acts as Putin’s agent.
His aim is to weaken Ukraine, discredit Zelensky, blame Zelensky for anything that goes wrong and impose a peace without any US security guarantee, a peace that manifestly cannot endure.
Trump’s frustration with Zelensky is fanned by the Ukrainian leader’s insistence that Putin cannot be trusted and will break any agreement. Of course, it’s true. Zelensky knows only a US security guarantee can underwrite a war settlement, but Trump and JD Vance oppose any such US guarantee, the pivotal concession to Putin.
The President’s senior office holders fall into line. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, once a champion of Ukraine, now parrots Trump’s anti-Zelensky diatribes.
Trump’s fascination with Putin is a bizarre blend of strongman self-identification and strategic calculation. Although Putin’s war has killed thousands of Ukrainians, Trump told Zelensky that “Putin went through a hell of a lot with me” – a reference to the Russian election interference saga.
Yet his affinity with Putin is folly and guaranteed to rebound against Trump. Trump keeps saying Putin wants a deal. We shall see. Why would Putin agree to a ceasefire when a foreshadowed condition is a European military presence in Ukraine, which Putin believes is Russian territory? Trump may be shocked to find Putin won’t fall into the alignment he expects.
The ultimate issue here is Trump’s strategic transformation of US attitudes, policies and beliefs. Trump has reversed Joe Biden’s policy from support of Ukraine to de facto backing for Putin.
He lacks any moral or strategic view of a democracy under threat from an autocratic power. He refuses to distinguish ally from foe in his unilateral imposition of tariffs. He signals a US retreat from European security and a diminished commitment to NATO that for 70-plus years has prevented a major power conflict in Europe.
How far Trump will push US disengagement remains unknown – maybe he will pull back – but he functions as a unilateral wrecker of an alliance that has every reason to endure albeit with a major reallocation of the burden to Europe. Above all, Trump has given the autocratic powers – Russia and China – what they most craved: a strategic fracture between America and Europe.
And Trump doesn’t seem to care. Putin and China’s Xi Jinping will be surprised but ecstatic. They couldn’t have pulled it off – but Trump has gifted them.
Trump could not be clearer, saying a fortnight ago: “This war is far more important to Europe than it is to us. We have a big beautiful ocean as separation.”
Here is the strategic heart of the matter. For Trump and Vance the cycle of history has turned full circle. They operate beyond the legacies of World War II, the Cold War and “end of history” liberalism because they are convinced such global commitments have eroded American life and treasure, damaged the US heartland, been exploited by ungrateful allies and must be urgently reversed.
They cast themselves as hyper-realists when they are engaged in hyper-delusions. Trump is functioning on trade, security and diplomacy as an agent of destruction. He offers no considered statement about his global view but prefers to keep everybody guessing.
The elemental signs are that he seeks a great power triangular, competition among strong men – himself, Xi and Putin, a recipe for political narcissism, rising nationalism, the law of the jungle and the rule of the strong.
In a confused Breitbart interview, Rubio tried to impose coherence on the unfolding Trumpian chaos. “The big story of the 21st century is going to be US-China relations,” Rubio said. “If Russia becomes a permanent junior partner to China in the long term, now you’re talking about two nuclear powers aligned against the United States.”
Rubio implied that Trump might attempt a reverse Nixon – to pull Russia away from China. “We have to have a relationship with both,” Rubio said, because “these are big, powerful countries with nuclear stockpiles” and “they can project power globally”. It would not be a “good outcome for us” if Russia became purely dependent on China.
Trump has big hopes for Russia. In February he held a long phone call with Putin, ending US isolation of the Russian leader followed by more US-Russian official dialogue. The message: Trump is elevating Putin’s status. He wants co-operation, closer economic ties and US-Russia deal-making starting with Ukraine.
Trump lauded “the Great History of our Nations” going back to World War II. This is what Putin craves, being installed as some kind of great power peer that disguises Russia’s real weakness.
Any idea all of this might be good for Australia is a fool’s conclusion. A Trump sellout of Ukraine and retreat from Europe will reverberate around the world. It will encourage America’s enemies, seed distrust among its friends and alarm its allies.
In the Indo-Pacific it is likely Trump and Rubio will talk up the value of alliance partners, but who can be sure?
Leadership is about character and war accentuates the character of leaders. Trump’s character is on display before the world. This is not the character of Dwight Eisenhower, of John Kennedy, of Ronald Reagan. Nations in the Indo-Pacific will recognise what is happening – that Trump has a transactional mentality, that he obsesses about correcting the alleged exploitation of America by all and sundry, that he doesn’t discriminate between friend and foe in imposing his punitive tariffs, that his preferred modus operandi is cutting deals with fellow strongmen, that he speaks with a loud voice but is devoid of the consistency, conviction and temperament to run a stance of credible strategic deterrence.
Trump projects as a leader who is unreliable and untrustworthy. This is the decisive conclusion from his early weeks in office. Are we seeing the authentic Trump or will he change and adapt? Who could know?
Neither Anthony Albanese nor Peter Dutton will retreat from our deep commitment to the US – neither should they. But privately they will be deeply worried. Trump has arrived determined to stamp the world with his America-first brand of economic protection and alliance scepticism. He pledged to Make America Great Again but what’s on display isn’t a tenable domestic political strategy. America is being diminished before our eyes.
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