Vladimir Putin is the clear winner in the Trump-Zelensky Oval Office fiasco
While the ramifications of this stunning bust-up between Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky are still unfolding, the immediate outcomes are all bad for the West and for Australia.
The aftershocks of the Trump-Zelensky Oval Office showdown are rippling across the globe but it is painfully clear that the only winner from this diplomatic fiasco is Russian dictator Vladimir Putin.
While the ramifications of this stunning bust-up between the US President and his Ukrainian counterpart are still unfolding, the immediate outcomes are all bad for the West and for Australia.
Firstly, the prospects of peace in Ukraine – at least on fair and balanced terms – have nosedived because of Donald Trump and his Vice-President JD Vance’s unprovoked attack on Volodymyr Zelensky.
Secondly, Putin’s negotiating hand in any peace talks has been massively strengthened by the personal fallout between the leaders and the prospects of America cutting off military aid to Ukraine.
Thirdly, Ukraine and Europe now confront their worst nightmare – potentially having to fight and, in Europe’s case, fund the fight, against Russia without US support.
And, fourthly, Trump has greatly increased the pressure on himself to now secure a peace deal or risk being seen as the US president who abandoned Ukraine, clearing the path for a possible Russian military victory.
The blame for all of this lies with Trump who, along with his provocative Vice-President, Vance, scored a historic own-goal by berating and belittling Zelensky in front of the world.
Trump was unhappy that Zelensky did not fawn at his feet with gratitude about US military aid (despite the fact that Zelensky has repeatedly thanked the US both before, during and after the Oval Office meeting.)
Trump also seemed angry that Zelensky didn’t agree that Putin was the benign, trustworthy leader that Trump seems to think he is.
On both counts Trump is wrong and his fight with Zelensky was not only unnecessary but was hugely counter-productive.
It instantly makes Putin’s position in any peace negotiations much stronger. Putin has watched in silence as Trump has attacked both Zelensky and Europe over their roles in the three-year-old conflict.
The Russian leader has not offered any public concessions at all despite Trump having already said he opposes NATO membership for Ukraine, opposes US troops being stationed there and that he supports giving Russia the Ukrainian territory it now occupies.
But having unnerved and alienated both Ukraine and Europe with these unilateral concessions, Trump must now rely upon Putin to give concessions if a peace deal is to be reached.
But why would Putin suddenly want to stop fighting if US support for Ukraine is now uncertain? The ending of US military aid to Kyiv would give Russian forces a genuine chance at overwhelming Ukraine forces on the front line later this year.
What sort of motivation does this give Putin to lay down his arms?
European leaders have embraced Zelensky after the Oval Office showdown in a strong show of unity and a clear sign of where their sympathies lie in this spat. But Zelensky is already under pressure to try to repair his relationship with Trump. The truth is that both Trump and Zelensky need each other. Zelensky needs Trump to help negotiate a peace deal which is not wildly in Putin’s favour. He also needs to persuade the US President not to walk away from his country.
Yet Trump’s bluff of telling Ukraine it is on its own if it does not agree to a peace deal is a bluff that could blow up in Trump’s face. Any US president who effectively fed Ukraine to the wolves by abandoning it and allowing a Russian takeover would be forever condemned by history. Trump does not want to be that president, so it is also in his own interests to try to get this peace process back on track. But that has been made much harder now by Trump’s own poor diplomacy.
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