How Zelensky misread Trump’s White House

After walking into an Oval Office trap, Ukraine’s president needs European leaders to live up to their vows of solidarity.

Trump and his vice-president, JD Vance, are already inhabiting a bubble in which no one contradicts them, let alone argues against them

I happened to be in Washington as last week’s momentous meetings unfolded and observed two striking features of the political atmosphere that I have not seen before in America. One is an extraordinary level of loyalty, among Republicans in general and members of the new administration in particular, to Trump in person and every word he utters. It is part devotion, part fear of taking even a tiny step out of line, but it is intense. It goes well beyond anything I have witnessed as far back as the Reagan years.

The second is a complete conviction among the same people that government in America has become bloated, corrupt and wasteful to an extent that only drastic action will remedy; and that as budgets are slashed, the true scale of that waste will become apparent, with the Biden administration as the worst offender in allowing it. That is why entire agencies are being closed or suspended and Elon Musk allowed to run riot. And this conviction includes the firm belief that aid to Ukraine has been part of the same wasteful, unaccountable, corrupted Biden-sponsored spending.

Once you see how visceral this loyalty, even fealty, has become and how deep the accompanying conviction - and I spoke to enough around the administration to see it clearly - you can understand why the meeting with Zelensky turned out as it did. Trump and his vice-president, JD Vance, are already inhabiting a bubble in which no one contradicts them, let alone argues against them. And they see Ukraine through the domestic lens of runaway expenditure rather the moral perspective of a free people defending their land and democracy.

This is what Zelensky walked into when he entered the Oval Office. Presented with a trap by JD Vance - to abase himself before Trump in public or to argue his case - this heroic man, who stayed in his capital when advised to flee, survived countless attempts to kill him and has ably led an invaded nation with indomitable spirit, chose to argue. He can be forgiven for that. But tactically it was a mistake, and the trap snapped shut.

His subsequent ejection from the White House, on top of the US aligning with Russia at the UN in the previous days, has opened up the most serious crisis within the western alliance since 1945. Over the past week, Sir Keir Starmer has handled this well. His announcement of increased defence spending was right, his own Washington meeting well-crafted and his strong support for Zelensky - while maintaining contact with Trump - correct. His hosting of European leaders on Sunday was a good initiative, marred only by the bizarre decision not to invite the leaders of the Baltic states who would have given him firm support. Suddenly, the prime minister has found his feet - perhaps even found his cause.

His success in recent days now gives him an immense responsibility: to come up with a peace plan that is acceptable to Kyiv but does not get short shrift in Washington. It is worth trying, and essential to fill the vacuum in which otherwise Trump talks directly to Putin with no other proposals on the table. But no one should be under the illusion that peace is close in Ukraine, under any plan, whether European or American. Trump is being played by Putin, who now only has to keep up the military pressure, making a show of talking while having no intention of agreeing a deal, to push the West into falling apart.

Sir Keir Starmer has found his feet - perhaps even found his cause. Picture: Peter Nicholls/Getty Images

It is easy to call for a ceasefire, but Moscow will have no interest in that while it thinks it has an advantage on the battlefield. It is constructive to propose that British and European troops could be stationed in Ukraine, but many European leaders look wary of joining in, and such a force will have little credibility without major US back-up. The usefulness of these ideas is to keep Trump engaged in a peace effort while inserting Europe and Ukraine into the discussions. For the same purpose, Zelensky would be well advised to make amends with Trump and sign the minerals agreement with the US, which he was ready to do before Friday’s debacle.

Trump is being played by Putin. Picture: Kristina Kormilitsyna/AFP

There is a clear danger that Trump will try to impose a humiliating settlement on unwilling Ukrainians. But there is an almost equally serious risk that when he sees peace is very hard to attain, he will walk away both from the attempt to secure it and any assistance to Kyiv, leaving our continent alone with its problems, facing an aggressive Russia and an endless war. Starmer and many of his Sunday visitors have recognised the vast importance of such a transatlantic split and can see that under any likely scenario we have to do far more for ourselves.

The prime minister has said that “this is a once-in-a-generation moment for the security of Europe” and that “we will step up to this historic task”. That is the right analysis and the correct intention, but the implications go far beyond raising the defence budget by two-tenths of 1 per cent of our GDP to 2.5 per cent. Such a generational moment, such a historic task, will require not only much higher spending on defence but policies across governments that create, here and among our neighbours, more resilient countries that can stand up for themselves.

If Britain and Europe are to be secure for democracy, they will certainly need larger armed forces. But they will also need to foster high-tech firms with the capital to scale them up, involve millions more citizens in reserves and armed service in a revived relationship between society and the military, move huge numbers out of welfare dependency and sickness, transform the performance of the public sector and make pension systems financially sustainable. It is not just a matter of reallocating some budgets. A new mindset is needed, in which a new generation not only becomes willing to fight for their country, but know they have something to fight for.

This is now the great burden on the PM and his counterparts. Some, such as Germany’s incoming chancellor, are ready for it but looking for sufficient support. Others, such as Poland, are taking a lead. Burden as it may be, they and Starmer should also see this as their opportunity. In the past week, he has shown a coherence that had eluded him. Unfortunate as the cut in overseas aid certainly is, it shows a readiness to make tough decisions. To follow that with the many more difficult choices to be made would give a purpose to government, honesty to politics and hope for democracy.

This is the best chance for the European continent to be stirred to action, to be woken from slumbering decline. For today’s leaders, the once-in-a-generation moment, by definition, will not come again.

The Times