Tough on China? Remember Trump only has one true allegiance
The presidential contest between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris could be the most critical for the US and the world since the 1940 re-election of Franklin Delano Roosevelt decisively altered the outcome of World War II in favour of the democracies.
As the polls tighten, Harris has a pathway to victory. But the odds still favour Trump, despite his crass and counter-productive attacks on Harris’s racial identity. Although his persona is well established – has anyone not heard of the man? – his unique capacity to polarise opinion has blinded many of his critics and admirers to what Trump does, as distinct from what he says.
Trump’s second term may be quite different from his first, for three reasons. He is unpredictable. Trumpism is not a choate ideology. And Republicans are far more divided than the optics of last month’s triumphal convention suggest.
Let’s start with Trump the man. His defining personality traits and political style are well known. Trump is a narcissistic, amoral populist with few deep convictions or beliefs. This narcissism makes him susceptible to flattery and influence peddling, leading to sudden policy backflips and transactional deal-making, the obverse of good governance.
There are many examples of Trump talking tough, not delivering or reversing a previous policy stance.
Take crypto, the digital currency known for its huge gyrations in value. As president, Trump dismissed digital currencies as based on “thin air”. Last month, in a “come to Jesus” moment, Trump pitched to become the crypto president declaring: “If crypto is going to define the future, I want it to be mined, minted and made in the USA.” This reversal came after being wooed by crypto executives who donated $US2.5m ($3.84m) to Trump’s campaign.
Despite his character flaws, Australian security hawks console themselves by believing that at least Trump will be tough on China. But will he? There are serious doubts about whether Trump would defend Taiwan against an attack by China.
In a recent Bloomberg interview, the Republican presidential nominee lambasted Taiwan for its success in manufacturing high-end computer chips and appeared to argue that the island is indefensible. Echoing his reluctance to support Ukraine, Trump suggested Taiwan would have to pay for US protection.
He has reversed his opposition to export controls on China’s ZTE, a state-owned telecommunications company. And he now opposes TikTok divestment after having previously supported a ban on the Chinese social media platform’s US operations. The TikTok backflip came hard on the heels of a large campaign contribution by libertarian billionaire Jeff Yass, who owns a 15 per cent stake of TikTok.
Noah Smith, an American blogger who writes a widely read newsletter, asks the obvious question. If Trump is susceptible to deals with deep-pocketed billionaires on policy, why wouldn’t he be amenable to a deal with a much deeper-pocketed China on Taiwan or other contentious issues?
One of the few policy areas where Trump has displayed rhetorical consistency is his preference for tariffs justified to his rust-belt supporters as “protecting American jobs”. In 2018, his administration imposed punitive tariffs on China. He has threatened a 60 per cent tariff on imports from China if elected and 10 per cent on all $US3 trillion worth of US imports, heightening fears of a trade war that would have serious consequences for Australia and the global economy.
This is widely considered to be a locked-in policy. Yet in 2020, Trump agreed to stop raising tariffs on China in exchange for a promise from Beijing to buy more agricultural goods from the US. Trump hailed this as a great victory. But China failed to deliver and was never held to account. Former Republican congressman Adam Kinzinger says what many think: “Trump’s record on China is one of initially tough policy followed by capitulation.”
Trump has all the hallmarks of the worst populist leaders. Sweeping rhetoric is seldom matched by sustained action. Decision-making is marked by opportunism, deal-making and self-interest rather than principle, consistency and the national interest.
Uncertainty about Trump’s policies is compounded by unresolved divisions within the Republican Party. The fundamental divide is between Reagan traditionalists, who favour strong allies, free trade and big business, and alliance-sceptical national conservatives critical of large corporations, free marketers and libertarians.
But there are many streams of divergent opinion even among the MAGA wing of Trump uber-loyalists.
Oren Cass, the head of conservative think tank Compass, rejects the view that protecting free markets should be an end in itself. Sounding more like a liberal democrat, Cass says there must be a good social outcome, namely “human flourishing”. In opposing an extension of corporate tax cuts Republican senator Josh Hawley queries why labour should “ever be taxed more than capital”.
This profusion of views allows ephemeral majorities to coalesce around particular issues, making it as difficult to predict Republican voting outcomes as Trump’s impulses. The new congressional balance of power within the Republican Party will be a crucial determinant of a Trump second term.
As global challenges mount, foreign policy will matter more than ever. Among the most pressing are the Ukraine conflict; the governance and reconstruction of post-war Gaza; China’s determination to replace the US as the pre-eminent global nation; action on climate change, and; a host of equally demanding issues that will require a presidential response.
Let’s not forget that most contentious US domestic issues have an international dimension – from the China-produced fentanyl opioid epidemic that killed nearly 75,000 Americans last year to undocumented migration, terrorism and the competition for tech supremacy.
Trump is not an isolationist in the traditional foreign policy sense. He is an American “firster”, a big difference. That, and his ego, mean he will engage the world for better or for worse.
Expect surprises, fasten your seatbelt and pay attention to what Trump does, rather than what he says. The Donald’s record suggests a second coming won’t be as beneficial as supporters hope, or as bad as his detractors fear.
Alan Dupont is chief executive officer of geopolitical risk consultancy the Cognoscenti Group and a non-resident fellow at the Lowy Institute.
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