Joe Biden’s negotiation for the release of Evan Gershkovich and other US prisoners held in Russia embarrassed Donald Trump

The Biden administration’s successful negotiation of the release of Americans Evan Gershkovich, Paul Whelan and others from Russian prisons caps a terrible week for Donald Trump, one he made worse by suggesting the US paid cash as part of the deal.

As is the former president’s habit, only three months ago he mouthed off that only he could secure the release of the journalist, a claim that now looks ridiculous.

“Vladimir Putin, President of Russia, will do that for me, but not for anyone else,” Mr Trump said in May on his social media platform, also predicting that Evan would be “released almost immediately after the election, but definitely before I assume office”.

US journalist Evan Gershkovich (L), US-Russian journalist Alsu Kurmasheva (C) and former US Marine Paul Whelan (R) hold an American flag after their release from Russia.

Mr Trump was referring to his winning the election in November, something which has come to look less likely according to punters at least, in the wake of Kamala Harris’s elevation as the Democratic Party’s presumptive presidential candidate.

The Republican presidential candidate’s chance of winning has crashed from the high sixties back to 50 per cent in the 11 days since Ms Harris took over the political reins of the Democratic Party after Joe Biden abandoned his campaign. Mr Trump’s near universal lead in most national polls has evaporated; in some the vice president is now ahead.

For the ordinary American voter, Mr Trump’s patently false prediction must also cast doubt on his other foreign policy claims: that only he can end the war between Russia and Ukraine (and within 24 hours for that matter!), that foreign leaders uniquely respected him and only he can avert World War III.

Trump’s skill at securing the release of Americans imprisoned abroad already looked dubious, given Mr Whelan, the former US marine was arrested in December 2018 by Russia, two years before Mr Trump left office.

The former president attacked the deal on Thursday (Friday AEST), which included seven governments in what was the biggest prisoner swap, and probably the most complicated, since the end of the Cold War.

“Are we also paying them cash? … Our “negotiators” are always an embarrassment to us … To do so is bad precedent for the future. … They’re calling the trade “complex” – That’s so nobody can figure out how bad it is!” he harrumphed on social media.

There is no evidence the US paid cash, and, really, who cares if they did? The old legal principle that’s it better to have ten guilty persons escape than have one innocent suffer is one surely held by most people. Most Americans would be happy to see the return home of their compatriots. The fact US government debt just surpassed US$35 trillion doesn’t suggest much parsimony in public expenditure, either.

The former president is right to say that in theory such prisoner swaps increase the incentive for foreign governments to wrongfully imprison Americans in order to use them as leverage for the release of their own citizens.

But they won’t be able to if Americans stop travelling, investing and spending in Russia, an outcome that would cause more damage to Russia’s economy that any reciprocal drying up of Russian visitation to the US.

Mr Trump has also claimed only he can engineer an end to the war in the Middle East and release of the Israeli (and American) hostages still kept by Hamas. There’s a slim chance at least that claim will be shot down too before the election, causing Mr Trump further political embarrassment.