Conservative politics around the Western world, as I’ve written before, is in crisis. But four trends internationally, which we could also express as injunctions, should give the Liberal Party faith to persevere. These are: ethnic voters are winnable; don’t go to batshit crazy extremes; voters reward genuine fight and genuine professionalism; have some respect for your own institutions.
Start with ethnic voters. This column is no admirer of Donald Trump. But in 2020 he got a swing of about 10 per cent among Hispanics. He lost the Hispanic vote to Joe Biden 59 to 38. He had lost it to Hillary Clinton in 2016 by 66 to 28. In last year’s midterm congressional elections, Hispanics split 60-40 for Democrats.
A decade ago, many predicted permanent marginalisation for Republicans because of increasing numbers of Hispanic and black voters. But America remains evenly divided electorally. The orthodox mantra a decade ago was that by concentrating on illegal immigrants, Republicans alienated all Hispanics. This was nonsense. Legal Hispanic immigrants and their offspring strongly oppose uncontrolled illegal immigration.
Hispanics don’t like the denigration of religion, the infusion of nuttiness into kids’ education or the stranglehold of teachers unions. But Republicans didn’t just broadcast these messages generically. They spent enormous effort recruiting Hispanic candidates and spokesmen, endowing Hispanic outreach programs, creating Hispanic Republican groups.
Compare the Liberals regarding ethnic Chinese voters. This column helpfully advised the Morrison government to stop talking about war with China all the time and to refer to its government as “the PRC”, the People’s Republic of China. Repeated use of the words China and Chinese in a negative context confused, worried and alienated ethnic Chinese.
In Britain, too, the Conservative Party has a better shot at government when it does well with voters of Indian background. Compare the composition of the British cabinet with the Liberal frontbench.
Second, don’t go to crazy extremes. The man charged with releasing damaging intelligence documents in the US indulged in racial and anti-Semitic comments and memes. Lunar right Republican congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene and a host of Trump supporters label him a hero for exposing US military secrets.
When I was growing up, all the extremists inhabited the far left. They were alienated from society and especially hated its national security institutions. Now they have their equivalent on the right. You don’t see much of that in Australia but there are echoes.
It’s perfectly legitimate to defend the integrity of women’s sports and some women’s spaces against being encroached on by trans folks who are transitioning. But in speaking about this issue conservatives should remember they are dealing with human beings; they should speak with moderation and sophistication, and it should never be a primary element of their political offering. They must be careful not to associate with genuine extremists.
Victoria’s Liberal leader, John Pesutto, decided with spectacular incompetence to bury the issue by expelling a member guilty at worst of poor judgment. He guaranteed it dominated headlines for weeks.
Voters also reward fight and professionalism. Is it really the case that the party of free enterprise can’t run smart social media campaigns?
I think Trump’s negatives far out weigh his positives, but one thing tens of millions of voters like about him is that he is willing to fight politically. If they agree with him on a specific issue or they feel he’s fighting for them in some way, say over trade policy, they put up with a lot of shabbiness from him but support him nonetheless.
Ron DeSantis may ultimately disappoint as a presidential candidate, but as Florida Governor he combines a willingness to fight politically with genuine professionalism and overall common sense.
The Indigenous voice is a perfect issue for the Liberals to fight on because the principle of not discriminating among Australians on the basis of race is such a strong, clear liberal principle. But with the zeitgeist so hostile, it needs a willingness to fight politically, some broad unity, and a coherent and disciplined party.
Finally, conservatives should respect institutions, both national institutions and the institutions of their own party. The immediate cause of much of Peter Dutton’s difficulties is the shock loss in the Aston by-election. Here’s the first question: why did Alan Tudge stand for re-election in Aston if he couldn’t sustain the position for three years? If he wanted a low profile, why didn’t he go the backbench for a term? He could have taken six months’ sick leave or family leave and no one would have batted an eye. Resigning when he did inflicted immense damage on Dutton and the Liberals.
Very few Liberals seem to have any respect or consideration for the party. They seem trapped in a deluded Winston Churchill psychology. Everything is about their personal story. They love the “here I stand, I can do no other” self-regarding statement that lavishes moral grandeur on whatever banal decisions they make.
Labor politicians are much more attached to their party. Since World War II, the only Labor leader I can think of who completely repudiated his old party is Mark Latham.
Contrast the Liberals. John Gorton, after he lost the prime ministership, actually ran for the Senate as an independent against the Liberals. Malcolm Fraser resigned from the Liberal Party and relentlessly campaigned against it. John Hewson is constantly critical of the Liberals and formally failed to renew his membership. Malcolm Turnbull is now consistently hostile to the contemporary Liberal Party and would not endorse Dave Sharma, the Liberal candidate, in the by-election caused by Turnbull’s resignation from parliament.
Right now Julian Leeser is getting universal – and in my view entirely undeserved – accolades as a great man of principle because he resigned from the opposition frontbench so he could support the Yes case for a voice, no matter how bad the actual wording of the proposed constitutional amendment.
Why on earth did Leeser ever agree to take the legal affairs and Indigenous Australians shadow portfolios in the first place?
As a commentator I was impatient at the Liberal Party taking so long to get to the position of principle against creating a race-based institution in the Constitution. In all the months since the election of the Albanese government I never spoke to a single Liberal who imagined that the party would support the voice in principle.
So what did Leeser ever imagine would happen? Or did his calculations change? Recently Leeser has been verbally beaten up by Noel Pearson. Being accused of near racism by Indigenous leaders is a very bracing experience.
Meanwhile, the Opposition Leader’s position and prospects are much weaker. Leeser is now a hero to all those liberals who will fight to the death for your right to agree with them. That’s money for jam. Shadow cabinet solidarity and federal party coherence, however, are gravely damaged.
A conservative revival will happen one day, but not like this.
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