Election now in precarious balance as minority beckons

Premier Anastasia Palaszczuk and Jackie Trad visiting Paniyiri. Picture: Peter Wallis

Newspoll suggests it is curtains for Jackie Trad and perhaps also for a government she seemed one day destined to lead.

As deputy premier and treasurer, she proved to be a lightning rod for controversy, her bareknuckled approach alienating many Labor colleagues. Some will be tempted to say good riddance.

This is sheer folly for the ALP. If Trad is defeated in South Brisbane — and let’s not write her off completely because, as she says, the voters get the final say — Labor will lose one of its brightest talents and a leadership option should the LNP pull off an unlikely victory.

For all her missteps and misjudgements, Trad was one of the few shining lights in a deeply lacklustre line-up. She got things done and was warmly regarded by a business community that long ago went cold on Annastacia Palaszczuk.

The election is coming down to a precarious balance of sectional and regional interests that could swing either way. Labor is losing outside Brisbane, although not by as much as the LNP would like or needs.

The government has limited scope to pick up in the city.

Deb Frecklington needs a net gain of nine seats to get the LNP to the 47 to govern in its own right. That looks to be too big an ask. The loss of South Brisbane could drive Labor into the arms of the Greens to carry on in minority government. This would be the supreme irony of Trad’s defeat, given she was formerly a champion of the government’s greenest issues including, of course, the go-slow Queensland imposed on the Adani coalmine.

If the Greens hold to their election commitments, the price of their support could be ridiculous mineral royalty hikes to fund their pie-in-the-sky policies, something Trad has been at pains to point out. Before they preference Labor last in South Brisbane, LNP voters should be careful what they wish for.