Newspoll: Anthony Albanese in trouble as Labor fails to recapture lost legions

Federal Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese. Picture: Roy Van Der Vegt

There is a sobering, grim and even frightening message in the public’s reaction to Scott Morrison’s $507 billion fight against the COVID-19 pandemic recession – Labor’s attempt to recapture its lost legions is not working.

It’s too early to say Anthony Albanese’s long campaign to distance himself from the ALP’s losing big-taxing, big-spending agenda at the last election and regain the vital support of core Labor voters has failed.

But the internal numbers of the latest Newspoll survey suggest the Opposition Leader has not made ground so far and my be slipping behind.

 

The headline Newspoll figures for primary support, two-party preferred and voter satisfaction with the leaders is not good for the ALP – continued flatlining in the mid 30s for primary, further behind on 2PP and dissatisfaction with Albanese rising – but it’s how Labor voters view the Prime Minister, the budget and economic management which is the real blow.

Consider this: 42 per cent of people considered the budget to be “good” – of those 31 per cent were Labor voters – 20 per cent considered the budget to be “bad” – of those 29 per cent identified as ALP voters.

So, one in three Labor voters considered it a good budget – the same ratio as bad.

On the question of being personally better or worse off, which had an uncommitted majority of 51 per cent, one in four Labor voters thought they would be better off compared to one in three who opted for worse off.

Albanese’s budget alternative was judged by 33 per cent to be a better outcome but within that total 11 per cent of Labor voters said outright the ALP couldn’t do a better budget and 66 per cent it would.

That means one in ten Labor voters were outright in preferring the Coalition’s budget plan and one in three couldn’t bring themselves to say Labor was better.

 

When asked if Morrison or Albanese was more trusted to handle the economic recovery one in five Labor voters opted for Morrison and 15 per cent couldn’t decide. Yes, there was 67 per cent, two thirds, of Labor voters who opted for Albanese but Labor cannot possibly win an election where one in three ALP voters either supports the Coalition or can’t themselves to identify with Labor.

The tax cuts, which the Coalition brought forward for low and middle income earners, were overwhelmingly supported, including by four out of every five ALP voters – 79 per cent.

What’s more, on the broader question of stimulus and economy recovery, one in three Labor voters supported the Coalition approach and even on the issue of wage subsidies for those under 35, one of Labor’s key points in garnering support among older workers, there were still one in four ALP voters supporting Morrison.

Overall women were less attracted to the budget and the Coalition than men, supporting the key Labor point that the budget “ignored women”, but more women believed the budget was good rather than bad, they were evenly split on whether they were better or worse off personally and more believed Labor would not have done better.

 

The key here is that Labor’s support lost at the last election – middle-income earners, blue collar workers, people in the regions – has to be regained if the ALP is to be any hope in what is a likely election later next year.

Labor’s primary vote remains too low because it has lost core support to conservative fringe groups and the Coalition after suffering years of bleeding to the Greens on the left and can’t seem to make a choice which side to fight and which side to fight for.

Albanese has conceded the economic recovery after the recession will be the key to the election yet Labor continues to fail to attract ALP voters on economic management and tax and remains shackled to an anti-mining, uncosted and damaging climate change agenda. Labor’s big promise out of the budget is more spending on a $6 billion child care subsidy for families on incomes of put to $530,000 without any detail of where the money is coming from.

Albanese is caught between the losing legacy of Bill Shorten and the winning pragmatism of Morrison who appeals to enough Labor voters to keep the ALP primary vote down while simultaneously being able to offer tax cuts, which Labor opposes, to the Coalition’s base of higher income earners and business at the next election.

That Morrison got a big tick for a huge spending budget was to be expected but the continuing doubt within Labor voters about Albanese’s response is an even bigger worry for the ALP.