Tasmania needs a circuit-breaker

After copping Labor’s worst result for more than a century, the party’s Tasmanian leader, Dean Winter – who hopes to hold 10 out of 35 House of Assembly seats – is talking to crossbenchers in the hope of forming government.

He has ruled out a deal with the Greens, whose leader, Rosalie Woodruff, recognised on election night what she described as the Palestinian “genocide”. But, conveniently, Mr Winter would accept the five Greens MPs’ support if it came without conditions. As if it would.

Saturday’s election, predictably, re-elected the island state’s sclerotic hung parliament. “Tasmanians have spoken; now it’s time to work out what they’ve said,” as federal Attorney-General Michelle Rowland told Sky News on Sunday.

Despite his dismal economic record, Liberal Premier Jeremy Rockliff won 40 per cent of the primary vote and the biggest number of seats, 14 or 15. Yet even with the support of a Shooters, Fishers and Farmers MP and ex-Labor independent David O’Byrne, he could struggle to form government.

For the sake of Tasmania, which needs a government with certainty of tenure if the economy is to be fixed, the best course open to Mr Winter is to guarantee Mr Rockliff supply but scrutinise other legislation on merit. It was Labor that triggered this early election, after just 16 months, by launching a no-confidence motion in Mr Rockliff, who resisted. The opposition’s gamble did not pay off; its vote went backwards by 3 per cent and Mr Winter must pay the price.

Mr Rockliff earned another chance to form a cabinet but he must do better to get Tasmanian finances in order and cut government spending. For the sake of the state across the longer term, the two major party leaders should look hard at Tasmania’s arcane Hare-Clark proportional representation voting system. On recent trends, it seems unlikely to deliver a government with a clear majority in the foreseeable future.

That is not what Tasmanians need. They need a government with the political capital to contain spending and better manage the economy. As Matthew Denholm wrote on the eve of the election, budget papers forecast that the state’s net debt, which did not exist before the Liberals won office 11 years ago, will grow from $4.2bn in 2024-25 to $13bn by 2027-28. As the state’s Treasury said in its pre-election financial outlook in June: “The rate of growth in debt is not sustainable and the size of the problem will only increase if not addressed. Immediate and sustained action is needed.”

The Treasury equated the size of the challenge to cutting government spending by 25 per cent, increasing state taxes by 250 per cent or slashing 20,700 of the state’s 33,200 public servants. The Treasury was not suggesting such austerity measures be imposed but was underlining the scale of the crisis. The incoming minority government must encourage private investment in productive industries and contain taxes, especially business taxes such as stamp duty, to boost the economy by building prosperity and revenue. Good services matter, and it should not be afraid of the “user pays” principle, carefully means-tested. If the election is to have lasting value beyond nuisance value, it should serve as a circuit-breaker to reverse Tasmania’s serious economic decline.