Tasmanian state election: Liberals, Labor and Greens still jostling for power

It may be weeks before Tasmanians know who will form their next government, after scenes on election night that looked eerily familiar to those seen after the 2024 poll.

Tasmanian Labor leader Dean Winter on Saturday night. Picture: Caroline Tan

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It may be weeks before Tasmanians know who will form their next government.

The drama that played out on Saturday night in Hobart’s tally room was eerily familiar to that seen after the last poll, in March 2024.

Scene one: Liberal leader Jeremy Rockliff claims victory to cries of “Rocky”, despite failing again to win the ‘stable majority government’ he has promised.

Scene two: The Greens leader reminds Labor that they have a lot in common and could keep the Libs out, with just a little negotiation.

Scene three: A Labor leader – Rebecca White in 2024 and Dean Winter on Saturday night – suggest they might just take the Greens and crossbench up on that offer.

The denouement, however, may or may not pan out as in 2024.

Back then, White was rolled by her colleagues, who had no stomach for jumping into bed with the Greens, and lost the leadership.

Winter may yet suffer the same fate, having failed to gain a single seat despite a Liberal government that has created a budget crisis, bungled a billion dollar ferry project and divided the state over a stadium.

Labor has suffered a negative swing, its statewide vote dropping from 29 per cent in 2024 to 25.8; the Liberals have lifted from 36.7 in 2024 to 39.7 on Saturday.

That’s hardly a glaring mandate for Winter to form a government. However, the Labor leader argued a significant majority in the new Assembly will be “progressive” MPs.

Tasmanian Premier Jeremy Rockliff claims victory. Picture: Caroline Tan

Tasmanian Greens leader Dr Rosalie Woodruff. Picture: Caroline Tan

If Tasmania had a simple preferential voting system, rather than proportional representation, he might be premier, the argument will go.

While the Liberals will likely have 14 or even 15 seats, it’s not clear they have an easier path to locking in the 18 votes needed for assurances on confidence and supply.

That’s even if one or two Shooters, Fishers and Farmers MPs are elected and can be brought onside by team Rocky.

Labor with the Greens would have a combined 15 votes and there are three green-left independents – Kristie Johnston, Peter George and Craig Garland. That’s 18 – if Johnston and George overcome their hostility to formal deals.

A fourth independent, David O’Bryne, gave confidence and supply assurances to the last Rockliff government, but is a former Labor leader.

He and Winter are old ALP arch enemies but O’Byrne listens to trade unions, who may want Labor bums on ministerial leather.

Stay tuned for what could be weeks of horse-trading and trips to and from Government House.