Learning lessons of history to chart uncertain times

For a prosperous and optimistic nation the new year brings both opportunity and challenge. How we respond will define the kind of place Australia will become after the dust has settled on a period of rolling upheaval. The challenges are not unique to us and they include international and national events that are sometimes beyond our control. But history and geography put us at the centre of great shifts that cannot be avoided or ignored.

As The Australian enters its 60th anniversary year as a newspaper our mission remains the same as it has alway been: to deliver excellence in journalism to help our readers better understand the complex world around them and to make up their own minds. As editor at large Paul Kelly writes in a major essay published on Monday, Australia is heading into a future of multiple challenges defined by the need to improve its economic performance, lift living standards and manage the transformations from technological innovation, climate change and geo-strategic threat. We must improve on our domestic underperformance of the 15 years since the 2008-09 global financial crisis while tapping into opportunities offered by shifts in global power and economy. We must also navigate an uncertain international environment. This includes current wars in Europe and the Middle East as well as the potential for conflict closer to home. The “end of history” hopes that came with the end of the Cold War are over. Anti-Western forces led by China, Russia and Iran are joining to exploit what they perceive as weakness in democratic nations to assert their claim to an alternative world order. This year’s presidential election in the US carries extra weight for the world.

There are lessons to be found in history. Some of these are plain to see in the release of the 2003 cabinet records that offer a reminder of how the big issues evolve over time but never go away. As they are today, the economy, defence, national security, climate change, China and Indigenous affairs were defining issues of the period. In 2003, the Howard government was being urged by Treasury to adopt an economy-wide carbon trading scheme as a free-market way to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. We became the first major country to recognise China as a market economy while laying the groundwork to negotiate a free-trade agreement. On Indigenous affairs, the experiment with ATSIC was coming to an end as the nation grappled with policies of shared responsibilities in Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander affairs. Fast-forward two decades and climate policy remains contested, China has used the West’s economic accommodation to assert a claim for global power and issues of Indigenous representation are as a fraught as ever.

The political leaders of that period, John Howard and his treasurer, Peter Costello, have used the release of the cabinet records to urge the Albanese government to rediscover the virtue of fiscal discipline and tax reform. The Albanese government is cautioned to maintain the budget surplus and use it to retire debt rather than spend it, ensure the stage-three income tax cuts are delivered, and consider raising the GST as part of broader taxation reform.

The cabinet papers give a window into how government performed when we were last called to join our allies in a “Coalition of the Willing” in the second Gulf War. The lesson from history is that decision-making in times of crisis is an imperfect science. Mr Howard admits he was “surprised, disappointed, and not a little angry” when it transpired that Saddam Hussein did not have stockpiles of weapons of mass destruction. But given the advice he had, Mr Howard says he would make the same decisions. Cabinet papers reveal that the Howard government decided to commit forces to Iraq in March 2003 without a written submission to cabinet on the costs, benefits and implications, leaving detailed briefings and lengthy discussions principally to the National Security Committee. As Troy Bramston reports, no records from the NSC about the decision were released on Monday. The Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet said this was due to an “administrative oversight”. Mr Howard and Mr Costello, and former defence minister Robert Hill, told The Australian they were not involved in the decision to keep the records classified. The former ministers support disclosure and urged the National Archives to release the documents without delay. They are right to do so in order that a full appraisal of events can be made. Leaders have a responsibility to absorb the lessons of history and to not repeat the mistakes. Let that be the message for a happy new year.