PM’s China visit is welcome but comes with big risks

Anthony Albanese lands in Beijing on Saturday for an extended visit to China at a highly charged time in global and regional affairs. Having changed tack from economic coercion to diplomatic flattery, China is more determined than ever to drive a wedge between Australia and our greatest ally, the US.

Reading the official Beijing accounts of the Prime Minister’s visit, the clear picture is that the Chinese Communist Party believes its strategy regarding Australia is working.

The China Daily has editorialised in praise of “the strategic autonomy the Albanese government has displayed”. There is no doubt that US President Donald Trump is making the CCP’s job easier with his erratic behaviour on tariffs and the demands he is putting on even the US’s closest allies. The challenge for Mr Albanese is to maximise the trade and commercial opportunities for Australia without falling into Beijing’s bigger diplomatic trap.

Former Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade Australia-China Council scholar Andrew Phelan expressed concern that the Albanese approach to China lacked “strategic depth”, given the bifurcation under way in global dealings as the US and China dig deeper into trade and diplomatic divorce.

Australia is being courted by both sides for its rare earths and strategic minerals at a time that they have become a front line in strategic competition between the powers. Beijing has sought to extend trade relations with Australia to include AI, an invitation that was rejected given the CCP’s record for malicious digital surveillance and interference.

In a government-sanctioned editorial ahead of Mr Albanese’s arrival, the Global Times said the official itinerary “clearly indicates Australia’s intention to deepen economic and trade co-operation with China, which brings renewed optimism for the future of China-Australia relations”.

Mr Albanese is being accompanied on the visit by some of Australia’s most senior business leaders. And given the overt goodwill being shown towards the Albanese government by Beijing, no doubt there will be big economic opportunities on offer. This must not be allowed to obscure the reality of the global competition that increasingly is wedging Australia between the interests of its biggest security partner and its major trading partner.

The Global Times pointedly raised concerns over threats to take the Port of Darwin out of Chinese ownership. It said it was crucial that economic co-operation was founded on “mutual respect, mutual benefit, and adherence to the spirit of agreements”. Foreign Minister Penny Wong issued a welcome reality check ahead of Mr Albanese’s departure when she expressed alarm over Beijing’s strategic ambitions and surging military capabilities.

Senator Wong said Australia didn’t agree with all of Mr Trump’s policies but strongly supported an ongoing US presence in the Indo-Pacific as a vital counterweight to China’s efforts to shift the ­regional balance of power in its favour.

As Paul Kelly writes on Saturday in Inquirer, it is an embarrassment Mr Albanese is visiting China again before he sits down with Mr Trump but the Prime Minister must not allow any feelings of personal rejection by Mr Trump to cloud his judgment about our larger interests.

Visiting Beijing is a good thing. It is a long way from the situation of only a few short years ago when Beijing refused to engage with any senior Australian officials as part of its coercive wolf warrior diplomacy. Those days are gone but could easily return.

Both government and industry leaders must heed the lessons from that period. Mr Albanese in China will face a keen test of his diplomatic skills, strength of character and ability to identify where the nation’s bigger security and long-term interests lie.