Dunkley by-election a pass mark at best, Liberal hardheads admit

Peter Dutton was sent a clear message that he and his frontbench have a hell of a lot more work to do, writes Simon Benson. Picture: NCA NewsWire / David Crosling

Anthony Albanese may have saved Dunkley but by no means does this mean he will save Labor from the likely prospect of a second term in office as a minority government in coalition with the Greens and independents.

Far from it. Dunkley only re-enforces a trend apparent in the polls for some time.

Not only is Labor’s position not consolidating, it is at best treading water.

The broader left vote and right vote remains essentially locked in a status quo position.

What Dunkley showed was that the left vote consolidated around Labor because of the Greens running dead in the seat, while the conservative vote coalesced around the Liberal Party because of the absence of UAP and One Nation.

And this won’t be the case at a general election.

The key number out of Saturday night’s result is just how many Labor voters were convinced to switch their vote into the Liberal column.

At best guess, this may be around 2 per cent.

And this is the number most relevant to Peter Dutton’s path to The Lodge. And it is this message that Dutton needs to heed, consider and assess.

In by-election terms, it is an anaemic protest vote at best.

This exposes some of the more nonsensical claims of the night that a swing of the size in Dunkley could result in a Coalition victory at a general election.

While it offers the prospect of picking up seats, it is nowhere in the vicinity of government-forming territory.

At a time of peak cost-of-living pressures, hard heads in the party who are numerate enough to understand what really happened have conceded to this columnist that this has been a disappointing result for the party.

“It is a pass mark at best,” says one.

“It is a small step along the path of getting us back in the game,” says another.

The reality of Saturday night is that Dutton was sent a clear message that he and his frontbench have a hell of a lot more work to do to convince Australians that the Coalition should be considered as an alternative government.

The time is rapidly approaching for Dutton to start making some very hard-nose decisions. And that includes what he does with his frontbench, as much as the formulation of a compelling policy case to deal with the lag effect of cost-of-living pressures – which will not resolve quickly – and an economic reform case that is deliverable and credible.

There is a flip side to all this. And it goes to Albanese’s natural inclination to misread the politics as being an endorsement of his own personal powers of persuasion.

There are lessons for Labor from Dunkley that are equally profound. Dunkley since its redistribution has become a safe Labor seat. It’s not so safe anymore. Victoria is not Albanese’s backyard. His approval ratings are the lowest in the country after Queensland.

The danger for Albanese is that he will convince himself that this is an endorsement that the government is on the right track.