There are clear warning signs for both the major parties from the Tasmanian election.
The failure of both the Liberal Party and Labor to form a majority government could well be a harbinger for the next federal election.
Jeremy Rockliff’s folly of calling an election believing he could win has a lot to do with the result and is suggestive of the Liberal Premier’s own delusions.
That aside, primary vote support for the major parties is in the mid-60s in the island state. While it is unlikely to be that low federally, at various points in the national political cycle, it’s come pretty close.
Drawing any inferences beyond that from a state election, particularly in Tasmania with its particular quirks, would be unwise.
Tassie is highly parochial and too much shouldn’t be read into the federal implications other than this important fact. The collapse in support for two major parties is not inconsistent with what is now happening federally.
The erosion continues, as voters remain uninspired by either Labor or the Coalition having a solution to the cost-of-living crisis.
The expression of this failure is acute in the Tasmanian context. But it has also become more apparent at a federal level.
It would point to a strong chance of independents being re-elected federally and the transfer of votes on the left – to the Greens – remaining an electoral conundrum for Labor.
At the same time, the Liberal Party continues to bleed votes to others.
It is a trend that has been evident in Tasmania since the 80s and the rise of Bob Brown, but has more recently been escalated everywhere else.
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