Tasmania election: Not so fast, Premier Rockliff, you’re not in yet

Jeremy Rockliff claims victory; not everyone is so sure.

It’s always fun when an election ends with two parties claiming potential victory.

Jeremy Rockliff showed more front than Myers in claiming a win, after suffering a substantial negative swing and a descent into at best minority government.

His election night speech in Hobart’s tally room lacked grace, suggesting he could by assertion alone claim government.

Sorry Rocky, but if you lack a majority you’ve still got a long way to go before popping the Tassie sparkling.

It’s not clear what Governor Barbara Baker made of his uncharacteristic arrogance but it won’t have endeared him to the people whose support he now needs to govern.

These are likely to include two or three Jacqui Lambie Network MPs, whose leader has made it clear the Liberals’ dirty tricks and merciless attacks on her fledging party during the campaign already has her back up.

As Rockliff himself has pointed out repeatedly during the campaign, the most seats and the highest primary vote don’t always translate to government.

The Liberals, with 13 to 15 seats (short of the 18 needed for majority) are in the box seat, but Labor, with 10 to 11 seats, cannot be ruled out.

With the Greens securing four and up to six seats, two left leaning independents with a chance of getting up and Lambie clearly unhappy with Rockliff, a grand Labor coalition cannot be ruled out.

Rockliff’s bombastic performance may be in part directed at his own party, whose ranks will be joined by arch conservative Eric Abetz.

The Premier’s leadership – having called an election because he couldn’t deal with two ex-Liberals only to swap them for a political potpourri – must be in question.

Chances are he and the Liberal Party will hang on, but Rocky will need to show far greater acumen and humility.