Budget sinks with voters but handouts improve Labor’s position, with an early election on the cards
Voters have rejected Labor’s central claims about Jim Chalmers’ third budget.
Fewer than a third believe it is good for the economy – a record low – and less than that believe they will be better off financially as a result. This is despite more than $30bn in handouts, if you include tax cuts and cost-of-living subsidies.
Nor are people buying Chalmers’ claim to have delivered an inflation-fighting document.
More people than not believe it will add to the inflation problem. Only 27 per cent of voters say the budget will make them better off.
On any measure this would be a fail mark. Yet this is better than Chalmers’ previous two budgets – the last budget recording 12 per cent on this measure, which was the lowest since the Abbott government in 2014.
And the 29 per cent saying they will be worse off is also an improvement on Chalmers’ previous attempts at making life easier for people. But for a budget that promised to make everyone better off, it was very wide of the mark.
Similarly, only 27 per cent say the budget will be good for the economy.
This is the lowest figure recorded since Newspoll began measuring budget reaction in 1999. Labor has traditionally scored lower on the economy in budgets than the Coalition – with the exception of the 2008 budget – but never quite as bad as this.
On the flip side, the number of voters who say it will be bad for the economy is lower than previous budgets. The more remarkable number perhaps is the historically high number of people who say its neither good nor bad – 46 per cent.
This too has broken records, with more people sitting on the fence. For Labor strategists, the danger in this number is that it may suggest people are waiting for a reason to vote Labor out.
The best one could say, is that people don’t quite know what to make of it.
Overall, the budget reaction is not inconsistent with the judgment delivered by voters on Labor’s previous two budgets.
Despite the tepid reception to what is potentially the last budget before the election, Labor has marginally improved its stocks. While the optics have been unfavourable for the government for months, the news cycle has been dominated by issues that don’t tend to shift votes. And this is where the Coalition has been overly focused.
The fact that voters don’t believe the Coalition would have delivered a better budget should be of concern to Peter Dutton.
The general verdict by voters could be viewed as less about the budget itself than a reflection of the general negativity that has infected the electorate. This affects both sides.
While cost of living might dominate the thoughts and conversations of most households, voters are increasingly coming to expect less of governments to solve their problems.
Movement in the numbers in the latest Newspoll are well within the margin of error. They are modest at best, and more than anything, reflect a remarkable consistency in the contest.
But Labor will take them as a win. Anthony Albanese’s personal numbers have lifted. For the first time since the failure of the voice referendum, the Prime Minister has returned to a neutral setting in his approval ratings.
On these numbers, with Labor 1.5 points higher on primary vote than it was at the last election, and with Albanese’s personal numbers better, one could see why Labor might be eyeing an early election.
It may just be able to hold the line, a remarkable achievement.
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